Serie A · resolved market
Will AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b28df855c3a9366cd308b2e0e0fc9f834d8890563b6cac3ddf293b652159c80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 22,452$3,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,640.68 | 2,579 | 45.6%1,175 W · 1,404 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 10,603$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.08 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 12c | 7,087$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.27 | 368 | 27.4%101 W · 267 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 16c | 3,152$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.94 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7001…2ababacked Yes | 7c | 3,056$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 16c | 2,335$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.48 | 380 | 39.7%151 W · 229 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 75c | 1,833$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.45 | 446 | 54.7%244 W · 202 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…c120backed No | 75c | 1,521$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.21 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +21.8wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 75c | 847.2$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.8 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 71c | 612.1$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 16c | 595.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 513 | 49.3%253 W · 260 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…3364backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 80c | 470$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Yes | 25c | 432$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 390$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 120 | 66.7%80 W · 40 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 25c | 388.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…5678backed Yes | 28c | 360.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 18c | 318$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Yes | 16c | 246.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 18c | 230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 416 | 44%183 W · 233 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 23c | 214.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7812…4bcdbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 80c | 198$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 474 | 42.8%203 W · 271 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 19c | 194.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 181.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 348 | 52.9%184 W · 164 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…48ffbacked Yes | 25c | 172$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 237 | 43.5%103 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b13…ade2backed Yes | 27c | 134.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…ee5bbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 20c | 118.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 272 | 41.2%112 W · 160 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…9ccbbacked Yes | 14c | 96.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Yes | 17c | 93.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 90.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 439 | 55.4%243 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 76c | 89.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 19c | 87.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 79c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 242 | 46.3%112 W · 130 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 16c | 74.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…74a4backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…9488backed Yes | 25c | 70.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…487abacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…c5b1backed No | 76c | 60.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…ef3ebacked Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 164 | 51.8%85 W · 79 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 75c | 28.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed No | 76c | 25.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 76c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…0783backed No | 76c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-08-24?No won
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-08-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.