TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
9INEof Sashi Esport, 9INE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7460…de6ebacked 9INE55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9943951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked 9INE50c4,593$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,302.212,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Sashi Esport49c4,446$2,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,193.175,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed Sashi Esport57c4,283$2,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.3917951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed 9INE53c4,163$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.924,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked 9INE56c3,235$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.823,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa526…c9f9backed Sashi Esport67c2,946$1,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.583540%14 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf268…ecf6backed Sashi Esport59c2,495$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.597851.3%40 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 9INE57c2,293$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.14,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked 9INE57c1,846$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.551,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Sashi Esport52c1,793$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.46,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 9INE51c1,755$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.323,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed 9INE62c1,750$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.9918154.7%99 W · 82 L+14.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed 9INE61c1,310$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.928943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Sashi Esport51c1,244$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.7863157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed 9INE40c864.03$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.4237145.6%169 W · 202 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Sashi Esport50c727.92$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.619546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Sashi Esport37c681$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.891,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x186b…8567backed 9INE43c679.07$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.076333.3%21 W · 42 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 9INE38c667.17$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.822,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 9INE51c646.04$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.232,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c52…9eaebacked Sashi Esport9c643$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.058332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked Sashi Esport49c633.68$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.493537.1%13 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-43.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Sashi Esport72c625.84$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.5557358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 9INE44c613.56$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.262,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1d…2b19backed Sashi Esport26c600$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1588143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd241…6c35backed Sashi Esport17c575.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.927742.9%33 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Sashi Esport46c567.75$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Sashi Esport45c564.91$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.883,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Sashi Esport34c554.89$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1837440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Sashi Esport57c545.67$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.0233553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed 9INE41c529.99$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.491,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed 9INE52c512.31$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.3144244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Sashi Esport58c507.67$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.4985851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…279bbacked Sashi Esport37c495.24$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18519935.2%70 W · 129 L-18.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-18.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed 9INE21c486.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.119140.7%37 W · 54 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed 9INE62c485.23$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.141,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad1…8f0ebacked Sashi Esport45c446.47$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.874158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Sashi Esport47c432.01$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.982,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed 9INE43c409.3$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.35527.3%15 W · 40 L-10.6wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-44.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Sashi Esport53c393.57$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.51,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc8…8f95backed Sashi Esport12c386.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-61.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Sashi Esport45c356.19$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.891,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Sashi Esport25c345.63$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2760032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Sashi Esport59c340.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed Sashi Esport32c300.92$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.373228.1%9 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc1d6…423dbacked Sashi Esport20c300$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.68240.2%33 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3c…2bc2backed 9INE68c295.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.291060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x662a…150ebacked 9INE43c277.23$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.024148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5076…711abacked Sashi Esport57c268.65$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.944254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Sashi Esport59c260.64$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5591743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3812…e4b0backed Sashi Esport39c259.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011242%47 W · 65 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked 9INE45c250$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.558343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c7…1ed0backed 9INE80c250$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.27100%7 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba23…cd7ebacked 9INE57c250$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.515455.2%85 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24f5…98d2backed Sashi Esport29c236$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5410844.4%48 W · 60 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Sashi Esport30c235$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.086944.9%31 W · 38 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 9INE57c227.85$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.025,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Sashi Esport46c223.06$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.61,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed 9INE36c210$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1217044.1%75 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x634a…dddfbacked Sashi Esport27c209.88$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed 9INE37c203.85$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4383543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa851…4dedbacked 9INE43c200.7$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.42748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked Sashi Esport20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011661.2%71 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a57…4942backed 9INE47c191.49$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.492268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Sashi Esport51c190.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5975438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked Sashi Esport61c190$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.150358.6%295 W · 208 L-1.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked 9INE49c183.04$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3527548%132 W · 143 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3776…e17abacked 9INE43c178.96$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.015549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98a…914bbacked 9INE57c178.91$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9311446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked 9INE57c178.24$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6430450.7%154 W · 150 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Sashi Esport38c172$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.972,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Sashi Esport31c161.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014242.3%60 W · 82 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Sashi Esport50c161.01$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.613,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a6f…8063backed Sashi Esport50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757132.4%23 W · 48 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Sashi Esport51c146.9$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.582,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae94…6b17backed Sashi Esport19c140$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.610551.4%54 W · 51 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7886…ec60backed 9INE73c132.42$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.099145.1%41 W · 50 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d65…6a04backed Sashi Esport55c131.24$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.818542.4%36 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9208…08c5backed 9INE63c130.16$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.16955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca2…0beabacked Sashi Esport58c128.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked Sashi Esport26c120.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9522729.1%66 W · 161 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 9INE30c120.03$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.217,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed 9INE56c113.9$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.342,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c6c…5e36backed 9INE38c113.42$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.623956.5%135 W · 104 L+15.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed 9INE63c111.82$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3749143%211 W · 280 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked 9INE43c109.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.31,04357.3%598 W · 445 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Sashi Esport59c106.37$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.772,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Sashi Esport52c105.99$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.612,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Sashi Esport71c102.5$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7329052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Sashi Esport46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4641716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3265…cf6bbacked Sashi Esport33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3314331.5%45 W · 98 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6334…6fa3backed Sashi Esport45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452544%11 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae4…5282backed 9INE33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Sashi Esport52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5230348.5%147 W · 156 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed 9INE50c99.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0259049.7%293 W · 297 L-31.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99d6…9fcabacked Sashi Esport47c95.55$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.352552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed 9INE43c90.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.714048.6%68 W · 72 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed 9INE18c90.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.821,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed 9INE52c88.22$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5867372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.