TailMyPicks
Market

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Solana dip to $100 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$391,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$340,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa46f…d199backed No0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed No0c25,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No7c7,638$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.911693.6%6 W · 163 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed No6c6,226$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.7463835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55be…dca3backed No12c3,869$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.7829126.5%77 W · 214 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed No16c3,709$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.916761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaf1d…f795backed No4c2,493$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.86333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8355…d7dcbacked No8c2,228$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed No7c1,962$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c1,824$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.521,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No6c1,763$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.382417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d4…6e9bbacked No13c1,524$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.991323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee70…76abbacked No3c1,205$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No11c1,028$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4864812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed No13c818.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11070%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c52…22fabacked No6c799.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed No14c685.54$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked No5c611.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.293998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed No5c599.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291067.5%8 W · 98 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed No6c595.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.151285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No10c463.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6216537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No8c413.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.966320.6%13 W · 50 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked No7c400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.71375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.526785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No8c353.43$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.312999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe932…0937backed No5c345.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No6c338.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.062683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed No17c297.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae9a…7ceabacked No16c283.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.811533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-49.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3eb3…1a51backed No7c243.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No9c219.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.787330.1%22 W · 51 L-18.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-54.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x3f45…6bf7backed No10c177.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…05d5backed No15c133.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No16c96.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.181499.4%14 W · 135 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a0…8b02backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+73.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.