Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $100 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cf8c084db580484888f15915d9193beb9e38d8666178738c4a1c50d1641c962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $391,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa46f…d199backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed No | 0c | 25,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 107 | 0%0 W · 107 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 7c | 7,638$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.91 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 6c | 6,226$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.74 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed No | 12c | 3,869$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.78 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed No | 16c | 3,709$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.9 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1d…f795backed No | 4c | 2,493$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8355…d7dcbacked No | 8c | 2,228$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 7c | 1,962$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,824$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 1,763$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked No | 13c | 1,524$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee70…76abbacked No | 3c | 1,205$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 1,028$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…2256backed No | 13c | 818.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c52…22fabacked No | 6c | 799.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 14c | 685.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 5c | 611.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed No | 5c | 599.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed No | 6c | 595.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 463.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 8c | 413.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked No | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 8c | 353.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0937backed No | 5c | 345.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 6c | 338.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 17c | 297.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked No | 16c | 283.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…1a51backed No | 7c | 243.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 9c | 219.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -18.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3f45…6bf7backed No | 10c | 177.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed No | 15c | 133.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 96.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…8b02backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $100 in February?this page
- Will Solana dip to $20 in February?No won
- Will Solana dip to $30 in February?No won
- Will Solana dip to $40 in February?No won
- Will Solana dip to $50 in February?No won
- Will Solana dip to $60 in February?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 in February?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $80 in February?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $90 in February?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $120 in February?No won
- Will Solana reach $130 in February?No won
- Will Solana reach $140 in February?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 in February?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 in February?No won
- Will Solana reach $170 in February?No won
- Will Solana reach $180 in February?No won
- Will Solana reach $190 in February?No won
- Will Solana reach $200 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.