Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e2a8f0dbd70d1ae751e3d5a5756edba92b879006dd314219b0280e06516b7eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,322$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 48c | 433.12$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.89 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 426.69$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 350.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 49c | 306.33$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.36 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 299.17$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.7 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 49c | 257$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 51c | 241.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 234.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 233.12$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 231$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 221.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 212.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 185.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 180.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 170.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 56c | 144$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 25c | 143.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 135.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 49c | 130.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 125.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 56c | 123$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 57c | 122.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 54c | 114.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 108.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 48c | 91.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 84.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 44c | 82.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 82.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 65c | 78.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 78.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 44c | 64.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 57c | 61.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 51.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…c615backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 54c | 42.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 57c | 42.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 52c | 39.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 47c | 39.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 35c | 38.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 42c | 35.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 39c | 34.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 45c | 30.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…3d0fbacked No | 52c | 28.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…1dbfbacked Yes | 73c | 27.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 64c | 26.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 53c | 24.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 52c | 22.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…73c3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.