TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 214.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,008 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3e7…bf64backed Over56c982.15$550 inLost-$55056043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under44c834.78$367 inWon+$467.64,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under44c812.58$356 inWon+$456.433,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7563…7654backed Over58c517.24$300 inLost-$300850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under46c388.45$177 inWon+$211.072,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…2f90backed Over52c384.62$200 inLost-$2008844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Over57c349.12$199 inLost-$1995158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under44c305.16$134 inWon+$170.891,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Under23c280.08$64 inWon+$216.381,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under45c199.99$91 inWon+$10968645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c193.86$97 inWon+$96.874,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Over49c187.08$91 inLost-$9125550.2%128 W · 127 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over57c175.44$100 inLost-$10095452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over56c170.3$95 inLost-$95.3781349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under50c100$50 inWon+$5067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f5e…1a04backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$506162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under43c97.57$42 inWon+$56.061,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over53c94.34$50 inLost-$501,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over51c88.24$45 inLost-$458657%49 W · 37 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Over52c88.06$46 inLost-$45.7923840.8%97 W · 141 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x422f…da1abacked Over58c86.21$50 inLost-$506473.4%47 W · 17 L+8.2wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under42c86.21$36 inWon+$502,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Over54c83.33$45 inLost-$454240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over53c56.51$30 inLost-$29.83,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under43c53.27$23 inWon+$30.581,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under48c53.26$26 inWon+$27.75,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under49c53.2$26 inWon+$27.023,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Over57c51.46$29 inLost-$29.3315649.4%77 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under44c38$17 inWon+$21.281,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…51dabacked Over64c33.02$21 inLost-$213545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under54c20$11 inWon+$9.245445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed62…6f83backed Over50c20$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.