NBA · resolved market
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41c8b66e506275f642baa8bca735d3ae4cf008695495c74672a7a34c52374666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 40c | 1,750$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 60c | 1,004$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.39 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 68c | 782.71$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.76 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…392dbacked Yes | 32c | 709.41$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…8815backed Yes | 30c | 659.16$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 29c | 501.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.92 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ec7bbacked Yes | 30c | 251.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…ada3backed No | 71c | 139.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 70c | 109.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…008dbacked Yes | 30c | 108.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 61c | 95.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 71c | 88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 62c | 84.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Yes | 23c | 66.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 29c | 61.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 69c | 59.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…e279backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 30c | 46.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6eb…2090backed Yes | 30c | 36.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…4874backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac3…8fb0backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 21.5this page
- Celtics vs. HornetsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 213.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 214.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 215.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hornets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Grant Williams: Points O/U 4.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-9.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.