NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa129b02c86fd235a8fde5b818672ae3c9ee2673ec3c1b687242204ba58339ea1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,535 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Spurs | 46c | 49,950$22,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,973 | 286 | 49.7%142 W · 144 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Kings | 54c | 27,703$14,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,959.38 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Kings | 54c | 27,489$14,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,844.06 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Spurs | 46c | 10,779$4,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,820.66 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings | 54c | 10,564$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,704.51 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Spurs | 46c | 10,296$4,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,559.84 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…c2a4backed Kings | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…5c74backed Spurs | 46c | 6,522$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,521.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Kings | 54c | 3,006$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.35 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 54c | 2,204$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 5c | 1,411$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs | 46c | 1,303$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.62 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…ef8dbacked Spurs | 46c | 1,296$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.67 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Spurs | 46c | 936.22$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.81 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 53c | 858.66$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kings | 45c | 809.09$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.09 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Spurs | 46c | 802$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.08 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs | 45c | 799.22$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.13 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs | 45c | 757.49$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.24 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed Kings | 5c | 739.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kings | 54c | 616$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.64 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Kings | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Kings | 8c | 430$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 433 | 52.2%226 W · 207 L | +19.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…328ebacked Kings | 55c | 311.04$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.07 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kings | 39c | 280.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Spurs | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.96 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e26dbacked Kings | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Spurs | 46c | 216.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Spurs | 46c | 203.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Kings | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…fa0dbacked Kings | 55c | 181.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Spurs | 68c | 172.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kings | 15c | 163.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Spurs | 45c | 159.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Kings | 42c | 153.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Kings | 48c | 130.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Kings | 55c | 128.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 576 | 50%288 W · 288 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Spurs | 46c | 114$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…b357backed Spurs | 57c | 108.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Kings | 54c | 92.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Kings | 55c | 90.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Kings | 49c | 74.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Spurs | 46c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Kings | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…9d5cbacked Kings | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…c8b4backed Kings | 55c | 56.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed Kings | 54c | 53.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Spurs | 44c | 53.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked Kings | 56c | 53.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Kings | 38c | 47.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Kings | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Spurs | 46c | 43.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 234 | 46.2%108 W · 126 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Spurs | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Spurs | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…9f73backed Kings | 54c | 37.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Spurs | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Spurs | 45c | 34.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Kings | 54c | 33.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Kings | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kings | 45c | 30.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Kings | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 210 | 49.5%104 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…48c6backed Kings | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…db55backed Kings | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Kings | 54c | 25.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Kings | 55c | 21.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Spurs | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde2…3fcfbacked Kings | 55c | 20.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 18.5No won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Dylan Harper: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Dylan Harper: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nique Clifford: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. KingsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Kings: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Kings: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Kings: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.