NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Hawks

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2daee17b3e992be734a924759bc056d3a740570e032f7707049acda75d2f007

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Thunderof Thunder, Hawks
Resolved: Mar 1, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $227,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $249,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,996 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1484…cafebacked Hawks	12c	22,747$2,730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,729.64	297	38.7%115 W · 182 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6178…f9a9backed Hawks	17c	21,127$3,545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,544.86	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Hawks	16c	15,000$2,394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,393.79	1,782	28%499 W · 1,283 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Hawks	9c	7,081$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.78	345	32.8%113 W · 232 L	-16.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Hawks	0c	6,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	457	3.5%16 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks	9c	5,316$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.94	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Hawks	18c	4,764$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.56	498	49.4%246 W · 252 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Hawks	17c	4,486$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$762.61	964	47.8%461 W · 503 L	+35.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Hawks	15c	4,384$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670.48	139	29.5%41 W · 98 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Hawks	4c	4,268$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.71	1,602	11.8%189 W · 1,413 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Hawks	1c	3,873$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.75	96	18.8%18 W · 78 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Hawks	1c	3,792$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.56	365	14.2%52 W · 313 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Hawks	5c	3,724$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.18	232	37.1%86 W · 146 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc254…b899backed Hawks	17c	3,555$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.09	61	21.3%13 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Hawks	2c	3,246$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.48	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Hawks	1c	3,090$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.76	80	16.3%13 W · 67 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Hawks	15c	3,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	406	27.8%113 W · 293 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Hawks	15c	2,810$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.35	469	28.4%133 W · 336 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Hawks	11c	2,800$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.2	1,090	35.8%390 W · 700 L	+40.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…3842backed Hawks	10c	2,019$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.76	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.19per pick	30cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Hawks	18c	1,667$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	510	37.5%191 W · 319 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f4…a015backed Hawks	16c	1,625$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e7…91b2backed Hawks	17c	1,588$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Hawks	1c	1,305$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	550	2.5%14 W · 536 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb215…b819backed Hawks	18c	1,111$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	261	24.1%63 W · 198 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Hawks	1c	1,050$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	750	2%15 W · 735 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73f0…3d28backed Hawks	10c	1,040$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	364	34.9%127 W · 237 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Hawks	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1,277	2.3%29 W · 1,248 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-84%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Hawks	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	311	25.1%78 W · 233 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe8…56a3backed Hawks	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	321	30.2%97 W · 224 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x854f…00a7backed Hawks	9c	920.18$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.37	472	29.4%139 W · 333 L	-33.1wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Hawks	16c	881$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.96	736	47.3%348 W · 388 L	-12.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1385…7097backed Hawks	12c	855.38$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.53	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Hawks	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	266	40.2%107 W · 159 L	+13.7wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Hawks	16c	705$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.38	855	42%359 W · 496 L	+10.0wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Hawks	17c	684.98$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.45	308	26.6%82 W · 226 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Hawks	13c	600$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	85	36.5%31 W · 54 L	+8.8wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+61.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Hawks	3c	577$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.31	376	27.9%105 W · 271 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Hawks	7c	571.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	370	11.4%42 W · 328 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bc1…5c9bbacked Hawks	18c	557.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Hawks	16c	555.56$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	364	23.4%85 W · 279 L	-15.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80b8…dac9backed Hawks	17c	529.41$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-58%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x938c…d5e5backed Hawks	17c	523$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.91	152	37.5%57 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Hawks	15c	496.98$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.55	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Hawks	14c	399.87$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.98	686	42.1%289 W · 397 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Hawks	16c	378.2$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.06	227	33%75 W · 152 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb63backed Hawks	17c	366.06$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.23	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.31per pick	48cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x861e…dddebacked Hawks	17c	347.06$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	145	39.3%57 W · 88 L	-6.9wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf095…525dbacked Hawks	17c	335.29$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	129	44.2%57 W · 72 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Hawks	11c	329.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.59	706	40.8%288 W · 418 L	+7.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Hawks	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	108	8.3%9 W · 99 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x140d…a0cabacked Hawks	16c	281.25$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bba…211fbacked Hawks	18c	280$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3541…c96dbacked Hawks	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	243	29.6%72 W · 171 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x207e…3499backed Hawks	19c	268.61$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	98	48%47 W · 51 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7570…6a21backed Hawks	15c	266.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8771…1a60backed Hawks	8c	234.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	6cpaid	+256.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c7…a3dfbacked Hawks	18c	216.67$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1338…0fa9backed Hawks	17c	205.88$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	140	42.9%60 W · 80 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Hawks	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	135	60.7%82 W · 53 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Hawks	17c	189.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	79	35.4%28 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Hawks	7c	180$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	569	45.3%258 W · 311 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Hawks	14c	170$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	878	3%26 W · 852 L	-22.3wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-62%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df6…5d25backed Hawks	17c	167.82$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.53	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35a4…e7b7backed Hawks	15c	167.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc64e…3cdbbacked Hawks	16c	159.97$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	39	41%16 W · 23 L	+4.2wins	+0.11per pick	30cpaid	+32%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x68b0…c482backed Hawks	19c	157.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x033f…53c8backed Hawks	16c	150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	159	42.8%68 W · 91 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a0…16e9backed Hawks	18c	138.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	718	23.3%167 W · 551 L	+6.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Hawks	17c	118$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	958	48.7%467 W · 491 L	+24.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb07…3245backed Hawks	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	132	43.9%58 W · 74 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3585…1595backed Hawks	16c	114.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	260	41.2%107 W · 153 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1c0c…9d02backed Hawks	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	261	24.1%63 W · 198 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa6…7721backed Hawks	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	132	36.4%48 W · 84 L	-8.6wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Hawks	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	100	18%18 W · 82 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8bf…c049backed Hawks	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	68	48.5%33 W · 35 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc13f…c93bbacked Hawks	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	634	45.1%286 W · 348 L	+24.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd75…8cfebacked Hawks	17c	94.12$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3212…1f37backed Hawks	17c	94.12$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	127	45.7%58 W · 69 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Hawks	18c	90.28$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	949	51.3%487 W · 462 L	-21.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Hawks	18c	90$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	377	34%128 W · 249 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked Thunder	80c	88.51$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.7	388	45.9%178 W · 210 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x485d…5907backed Hawks	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	148	51.4%76 W · 72 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71b6…4dd3backed Hawks	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	136	47.8%65 W · 71 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fd…d003backed Hawks	15c	80$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3feb…f4aabacked Hawks	15c	76.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b21…afbfbacked Hawks	18c	72.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f7…1643backed Hawks	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aab…b038backed Hawks	17c	63.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf86…601fbacked Hawks	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	501	44.7%224 W · 277 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Hawks	17c	59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	221	37.6%83 W · 138 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f6…a1c9backed Thunder	79c	18.82$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.95	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Thunder	79c	14.29$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3	98	68.4%67 W · 31 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78e1…4f7dbacked Thunder	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thunder vs. Hawks

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market