TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Julie&cieof NEW VISION, Julie&cie
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,729 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Julie&cie79c4,460$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.0320745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked NEW VISION50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00043951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked NEW VISION55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9775056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Julie&cie47c2,799$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.982,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed NEW VISION56c2,579$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.4724551.8%127 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Julie&cie21c2,249$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,775.45,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Julie&cie43c2,014$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.122,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Julie&cie45c1,663$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.235,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Julie&cie28c1,316$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.617,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Julie&cie51c1,079$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.7836440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Julie&cie53c1,078$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.751,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Julie&cie44c1,056$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.092,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed NEW VISION75c1,000$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.0524746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed NEW VISION1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e17…9d3cbacked NEW VISION77c893.62$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6906442.2%27 W · 37 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed NEW VISION69c800$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54840542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed Julie&cie26c733.83$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.9447054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Julie&cie33c664.78$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.4689046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Julie&cie26c650.49$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.177351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked NEW VISION73c614.4$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.471,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed NEW VISION21c592.16$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3529340.6%119 W · 174 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed NEW VISION78c582.38$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.6561948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked NEW VISION43c578.41$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3715449.4%76 W · 78 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked NEW VISION50c550$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27517240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed NEW VISION17c515.64$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.669146.2%42 W · 49 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked NEW VISION51c504.71$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.2638844.3%172 W · 216 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked NEW VISION57c477.34$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.642,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d67…5f14backed Julie&cie32c469.52$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.691233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked NEW VISION32c468.67$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7560032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed NEW VISION55c465.67$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8116850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9051…32d2backed Julie&cie31c433.66$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.5130859.1%182 W · 126 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Julie&cie31c424.01$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.6845754.5%249 W · 208 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Julie&cie22c423.23$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.122,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Julie&cie24c422.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.1338835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Julie&cie26c417.22$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.421127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked NEW VISION52c400.09$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.942,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked NEW VISION54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21626546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Julie&cie50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20023861.3%146 W · 92 L+0.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Julie&cie62c387.04$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8875438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked NEW VISION61c379.41$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.983,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed NEW VISION54c364.81$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19720353.2%108 W · 95 L+1.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked NEW VISION78c362.24$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.555641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed NEW VISION54c354.27$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3112748%61 W · 66 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed NEW VISION59c353.02$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.784,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Julie&cie45c320$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17625747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked NEW VISION75c312.15$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9475833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Julie&cie29c310.47$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.281,28137.8%484 W · 797 L+5.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked NEW VISION67c304.79$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1217955.3%99 W · 80 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked NEW VISION62c302.54$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0549242.1%207 W · 285 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Julie&cie45c300.22$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.1213351.1%68 W · 65 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Julie&cie35c280$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.111,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Julie&cie44c274.1$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.251,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Julie&cie42c272.17$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.861,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NEW VISION75c265.83$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.535,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Julie&cie30c264.41$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.317855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Julie&cie42c262.66$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.391,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Julie&cie72c261.83$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.843152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe91e…9ea8backed Julie&cie55c249.49$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.9410338.8%40 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked NEW VISION76c231.16$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17515047.3%71 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed NEW VISION54c230.08$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3427647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Julie&cie42c229.93$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.092,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed NEW VISION21c220.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.731,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed NEW VISION72c213.78$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6488330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked NEW VISION51c206.93$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.542,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e50…4b22backed NEW VISION77c200$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1545846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Julie&cie45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11026048.5%126 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d87…df1dbacked NEW VISION48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9617545.7%80 W · 95 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89ab…14e7backed Julie&cie40c196.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.944738.3%18 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked NEW VISION52c189.96$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.443,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Julie&cie48c187.48$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2927549.5%136 W · 139 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ce…366bbacked NEW VISION55c187.38$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed NEW VISION80c180$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.460451%308 W · 296 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Julie&cie57c180$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.562,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Julie&cie36c179.08$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.362,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Julie&cie42c178.18$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.542,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed NEW VISION58c177.31$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.586,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked NEW VISION56c164.92$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.034,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked NEW VISION77c163.18$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0335947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed NEW VISION61c156.2$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9725142.6%107 W · 144 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked NEW VISION55c146.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6765548.9%320 W · 335 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d1…73edbacked NEW VISION73c136.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed NEW VISION72c136.93$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9728173%205 W · 76 L+21.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Julie&cie20c136.41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.592,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0af3…8598backed NEW VISION73c134.97$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1814749.7%73 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked Julie&cie27c132.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0751252.1%267 W · 245 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Julie&cie40c132.17$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7663038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked NEW VISION33c128.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5218753.5%100 W · 87 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked Julie&cie65c124.91$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2322729.1%66 W · 161 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa57…2ec9backed NEW VISION40c123.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.823531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed NEW VISION47c122.94$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.752,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Julie&cie23c119.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed Julie&cie39c115.55$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0240857.1%233 W · 175 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed NEW VISION38c115.09$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.941,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Julie&cie44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6416032.5%52 W · 108 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31ab…20e9backed NEW VISION71c113.31$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8114048.6%68 W · 72 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Julie&cie45c109.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8776546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Julie&cie55c109.06$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.464,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Julie&cie58c107$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.263,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa57e…ed54backed NEW VISION73c106.85$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x829a…78fcbacked NEW VISION57c106.05$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.