TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Detroit Tigersof Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$233,797
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$272,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,797 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a88…41ccbacked Detroit Tigers55c32,222$17,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,499.938148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Texas Rangers45c31,700$14,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,264.797755.8%43 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99a7…fc82backed Texas Rangers45c30,581$13,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,761.5114248.6%69 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Detroit Tigers64c20,000$12,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,200.8951756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Detroit Tigers58c13,673$7,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,758.261,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Detroit Tigers54c9,995$5,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,597.5877053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Texas Rangers5c7,167$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.451,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Texas Rangers14c6,856$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.842,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers20c6,727$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.1410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers25c5,960$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.218,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Texas Rangers44c5,306$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.7160451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers55c4,440$2,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.884,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Detroit Tigers55c4,120$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85417853.4%95 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Texas Rangers36c4,089$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.2548850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Detroit Tigers55c3,231$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.9113655.1%75 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Texas Rangers9c3,005$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.4194034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Detroit Tigers55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3501,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Detroit Tigers54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.9577951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Texas Rangers8c2,955$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.622733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers79c2,785$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.788,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Detroit Tigers55c2,727$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.274047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Texas Rangers46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1507139.4%28 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Texas Rangers17c2,353$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40014134%48 W · 93 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Texas Rangers46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Texas Rangers44c2,032$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.1411656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Texas Rangers44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8801,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Detroit Tigers55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90075248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Texas Rangers46c1,862$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.4489153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Detroit Tigers55c1,701$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.321,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Detroit Tigers54c1,356$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.543,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Texas Rangers7c1,217$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8716135.4%57 W · 104 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Texas Rangers13c1,158$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.321,14142.9%490 W · 651 L-37.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Detroit Tigers55c1,118$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.1825149.8%125 W · 126 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Texas Rangers6c999.54$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.971,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2445…ff62backed Texas Rangers46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3683053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers45c800$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.826,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Texas Rangers46c598$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.086355.6%35 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Texas Rangers46c540$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.422548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Detroit Tigers55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22524946.2%115 W · 134 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Texas Rangers46c430.43$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19837052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x473e…c0f6backed Texas Rangers24c425.51$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.23033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Texas Rangers8c423.81$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.652,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers16c407.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Detroit Tigers54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18439850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Texas Rangers22c392.12$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0219442.3%82 W · 112 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Texas Rangers13c379.24$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4360941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Texas Rangers41c337.74$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9885235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f2…49b3backed Detroit Tigers55c318.18$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.181346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Texas Rangers46c275$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.577050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Detroit Tigers76c267.79$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8387352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Texas Rangers45c259.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.991,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Detroit Tigers70c235.49$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9712745.7%58 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Texas Rangers9c235$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8128952.6%152 W · 137 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa775…7218backed Texas Rangers46c234.5$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.871145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Texas Rangers31c219.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3652053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Texas Rangers46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006855.9%38 W · 30 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x657a…e233backed Detroit Tigers55c201.2$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Texas Rangers46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Texas Rangers45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Texas Rangers8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621149.3%104 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Detroit Tigers55c200$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.635446%163 W · 191 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed Texas Rangers31c199.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627833.3%26 W · 52 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Texas Rangers24c199.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8682551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1fc…5da8backed Texas Rangers8c191.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.915341.5%22 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef7e…03e1backed Detroit Tigers55c189.6$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.321050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Texas Rangers25c187.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4939640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8de…a2b8backed Texas Rangers6c187.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Texas Rangers15c186.67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2826315.6%41 W · 222 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Detroit Tigers55c184.15$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8720258.4%118 W · 84 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Detroit Tigers55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8220350.2%102 W · 101 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f26…fe92backed Detroit Tigers55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.823537.1%13 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers61c180.31$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.739,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Texas Rangers22c174$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8637444.4%166 W · 208 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Texas Rangers44c166.52$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.937941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Texas Rangers45c164.3$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9484140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Detroit Tigers58c151.96$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4941847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Texas Rangers32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.52,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Detroit Tigers55c150$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2527248.5%132 W · 140 L-1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked Texas Rangers46c145.65$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6758943.1%254 W · 335 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Texas Rangers42c143.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.331,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc58…9201backed Texas Rangers46c140$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x169d…5afabacked Detroit Tigers55c136.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.521050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c1…f121backed Texas Rangers46c136$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.56425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d74…5ec4backed Detroit Tigers55c135.4$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.932100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x844d…780bbacked Texas Rangers10c133.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.852240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafc0…a15bbacked Texas Rangers15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205841.4%24 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b31…f4cfbacked Detroit Tigers55c132.8$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa429…9bbdbacked Detroit Tigers55c126$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5d…a63fbacked Detroit Tigers55c125.6$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.521163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Texas Rangers17c124$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.081,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…84c5backed Detroit Tigers55c121.4$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d00…7507backed Texas Rangers46c119.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.799642.7%41 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc481…fb39backed Detroit Tigers55c117$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7534…5035backed Detroit Tigers55c113$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.851154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef65…f32fbacked Texas Rangers45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5088045.1%397 W · 483 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ce…a88dbacked Detroit Tigers55c110.4$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.681060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1edb…a60bbacked Texas Rangers14c108.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e8…448fbacked Detroit Tigers55c107.6$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.421145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Texas Rangers15c106$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.937143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Detroit Tigers55c105.45$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.451,29956.7%737 W · 562 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.