TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Rockets (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Rocketsof Rockets, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,096 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets46c1,196$546 inWon+$649.355,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Jazz54c1,011$546 inLost-$545.9471547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Rockets47c654.15$310 inWon+$344.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Jazz53c555$295 inLost-$294.9921443.9%94 W · 120 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c2a…e715backed Jazz55c317.34$175 inLost-$174.541656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Rockets46c281$129 inWon+$151.7444352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb1…c109backed Jazz56c178.57$100 inLost-$1004156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Jazz56c124.05$70 inLost-$7033554.6%183 W · 152 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Jazz51c121.14$62 inLost-$61.746657.6%38 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cf0…df85backed Jazz56c91.09$51 inLost-$50.611330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-49.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee0…bf55backed Rockets45c85.04$38 inWon+$46.771145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Jazz54c80$43 inLost-$43.288057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77a5…56f3backed Rockets45c78.4$35 inWon+$43.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+45.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28e1…d4d9backed Rockets45c77.68$35 inWon+$42.721291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+68.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xef4a…0314backed Rockets45c77.1$35 inWon+$42.411533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Jazz52c70.27$37 inLost-$36.6454246.7%253 W · 289 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…3a2abacked Rockets48c52$25 inWon+$27.043342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Jazz55c45.82$25 inLost-$2574547.2%352 W · 393 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Rockets43c39.39$17 inWon+$22.452,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.