NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad43612d29f5d67c14d961d9d81dde5cc1a09d38fd96f92fac83a86a593bd4fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 53c | 5,826$3,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,718.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz | 49c | 1,841$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.95 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Rockets | 51c | 1,838$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.62 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz | 47c | 961.97$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.87 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 24c | 905.64$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Rockets | 75c | 600$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Jazz | 6c | 532.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Jazz | 6c | 531.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Rockets | 53c | 440$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.8 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Jazz | 41c | 393.34$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.89 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Rockets | 55c | 365.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.93 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Rockets | 53c | 344.37$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.41 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb178…1fa0backed Rockets | 62c | 322.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Rockets | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Jazz | 20c | 239$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 261 | 31%81 W · 180 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz | 34c | 238.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4b…1ff9backed Rockets | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets | 53c | 189.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…d58cbacked Rockets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rockets | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Rockets | 65c | 154.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Rockets | 64c | 153.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Jazz | 28c | 141.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Jazz | 38c | 136.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Rockets | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Jazz | 49c | 122.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Jazz | 48c | 100.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Rockets | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…3d4cbacked Rockets | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Rockets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Rockets | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Rockets | 53c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Jazz | 37c | 66.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Jazz | 33c | 61.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Rockets | 67c | 56.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Rockets | 79c | 56.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Rockets | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jazz | 45c | 51.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Rockets | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Jazz | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Rockets | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Jazz | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…ae06backed Rockets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 50c | 35.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…0dcdbacked Jazz | 40c | 32.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Jazz | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Jazz | 48c | 30.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Rockets | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Jazz | 47c | 28.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b728backed Rockets | 58c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Rockets | 53c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Rockets | 52c | 20.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Rockets | 79c | 14.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Rockets won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. RocketsRockets won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-15.5)Rockets won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.