NBA · resolved market
Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbae098eed8688804b615f8b1ed92e59f2a1044092462ba0e18a8a83156cce91d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe593…cc7dbacked Yes | 50c | 7,205$3,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,618.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 49c | 7,111$3,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600.17 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Yes | 54c | 2,360$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.39 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 50c | 1,901$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.96 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab65…4a03backed No | 48c | 1,100$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 49c | 856.08$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.64 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 41c | 586.31$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.75 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Yes | 49c | 531.06$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd714…9a62backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 49c | 490$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f14…4418backed Yes | 59c | 396.23$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Yes | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…f5c7backed Yes | 59c | 216.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 50c | 202.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.65 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 49c | 195.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 48c | 192.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…e998backed No | 50c | 142.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Yes | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 50c | 89.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…9339backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…d473backed Yes | 50c | 71.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…4c63backed Yes | 50c | 70.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…850fbacked Yes | 49c | 61.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed No | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 49c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 128 | 41.4%53 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f62…0591backed Yes | 59c | 30.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 42c | 24.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 53c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 4.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-8.5)Rockets won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Amen Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. RocketsRockets won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Keyonte George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Keyonte George: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-13.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-14.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-15.5)Rockets won
- Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.