Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad8d2239659d728a92a827f5ffba64a46e1f2fc8fb8e5ff268efc33072e3a2a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 76c | 4,058$3,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.96 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 18c | 3,275$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.96 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 35c | 2,286$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.99 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 30c | 1,321$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.05 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 1,300$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 34c | 819.56$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.91 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 31c | 672.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.95 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 25c | 517$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.36 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 72c | 503$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.16 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 76c | 304.88$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.71 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 74c | 270.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes | 71c | 183.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 114.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 68c | 111$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 25c | 79.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 30c | 76.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 27c | 66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…747fbacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 29c | 58.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 66c | 28.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?this page
- Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?No won
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?No won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.