UFC · resolved market
Dumas vs. Johnson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaea55bcdf4453e8cc76a6ccf772dd50afb127e5b0f6bd01bd0ea11488971e29e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Johnsonof Dumas, Johnson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dumas | 24c | 9,523$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.54 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Johnson | 76c | 7,999$6,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.67 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Johnson | 77c | 1,948$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.05 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -10.5wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Dumas | 18c | 1,930$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.7 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Johnson | 75c | 1,163$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.75 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a3…e3a5backed Dumas | 23c | 1,009$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…65f9backed Dumas | 23c | 790$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Johnson | 72c | 730.01$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.52 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked Dumas | 26c | 699.52$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.95 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Johnson | 77c | 650$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…bf62backed Johnson | 77c | 571.27$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Dumas | 5c | 538.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Johnson | 74c | 506.9$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Johnson | 77c | 462.18$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Johnson | 76c | 460.53$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Johnson | 73c | 417$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Dumas | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae1…fed4backed Johnson | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Dumas | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…e90fbacked Dumas | 35c | 326.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…b6dfbacked Dumas | 24c | 313.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Johnson | 75c | 276$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Dumas | 23c | 267.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Johnson | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Johnson | 72c | 236.04$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Dumas | 25c | 233.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Johnson | 58c | 220$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Dumas | 36c | 220$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Dumas | 38c | 214.29$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Dumas | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Dumas | 39c | 134$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Johnson | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Dumas | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Johnson | 65c | 114.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Dumas | 28c | 110.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…c5aebacked Dumas | 25c | 110.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 44cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Dumas | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…c7dfbacked Dumas | 28c | 104.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Johnson | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Dumas | 25c | 91.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Dumas | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Dumas | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Dumas | 26c | 77.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Johnson | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked Johnson | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf826…cd1abacked Dumas | 28c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Johnson | 72c | 60.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Dumas | 31c | 56.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…41aebacked Johnson | 76c | 51.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Johnson | 74c | 48.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Dumas | 22c | 46.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…47f1backed Johnson | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 190 | 65.3%124 W · 66 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Dumas | 27c | 37.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93db…e431backed Johnson | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…dc85backed Johnson | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe244…bc37backed Johnson | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…4b01backed Johnson | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…5d15backed Johnson | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…6d82backed Johnson | 72c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Johnson | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…6020backed Johnson | 77c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dumas vs. Johnsonthis page
- Ardelean vs. Conejo RuizArdelean won
- Carnelossi vs. AlencarAlencar won
- Cuamba vs. LeeCuamba won
- Delija vs. Cortes-AcostaCortes-Acosta won
- Dulgarian vs. del Valledel Valle won
- Elekana vs. ChristianElekana won
- Garcia vs. OnamaGarcia won
- Radtke vs. FrunzaRadtke won
- Rowe vs. KoKo won
- Vieira vs. DumontDumont won
- Wells vs. GorimboWells won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.