UFC · resolved market
Carnelossi vs. Alencar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaeda79197509da6c18f51330e6a2c94a5351b04a775c8cc9f188f6e1698e1d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alencarof Carnelossi, Alencar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $680,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $933,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $680,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Alencar | 66c | 312,424$206,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105,524.24 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Carnelossi | 34c | 120,000$40,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,800 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Carnelossi | 34c | 115,774$39,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,361.17 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Alencar | 65c | 12,272$7,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.6 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Carnelossi | 35c | 11,897$4,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,149.25 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Alencar | 53c | 10,073$5,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,710.59 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Alencar | 69c | 7,346$5,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,291.84 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…e90fbacked Carnelossi | 48c | 6,228$3,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,018.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Carnelossi | 37c | 6,000$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Carnelossi | 34c | 6,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…abe8backed Carnelossi | 43c | 3,373$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.59 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Alencar | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Carnelossi | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Alencar | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Carnelossi | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Carnelossi | 25c | 1,918$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.56 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Alencar | 65c | 899.98$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.99 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Alencar | 65c | 874.96$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.23 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Carnelossi | 44c | 747.49$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.63 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Carnelossi | 42c | 555.21$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.47 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Carnelossi | 35c | 509$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.68 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Carnelossi | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Carnelossi | 34c | 499.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Alencar | 48c | 450$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Alencar | 67c | 445.97$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Alencar | 65c | 429.11$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.33 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Carnelossi | 33c | 340.47$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.93 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Carnelossi | 35c | 333$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Carnelossi | 35c | 326.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Carnelossi | 34c | 284.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Alencar | 66c | 280$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…a4e4backed Carnelossi | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Carnelossi | 34c | 224.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…8cb6backed Alencar | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1561…1a93backed Alencar | 65c | 194$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Carnelossi | 33c | 191.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Alencar | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Carnelossi | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Carnelossi | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Carnelossi | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Alencar | 66c | 145.23$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Carnelossi | 45c | 143.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…4340backed Carnelossi | 32c | 138.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Carnelossi | 44c | 113.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…74d2backed Alencar | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Carnelossi | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Alencar | 66c | 98.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Carnelossi | 51c | 88.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Carnelossi | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Alencar | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…6e9dbacked Carnelossi | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Alencar | 66c | 76.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked Alencar | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked Carnelossi | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…acc5backed Alencar | 67c | 67.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Carnelossi | 61c | 44.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85da…13b9backed Alencar | 76c | 43.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…c7dfbacked Carnelossi | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…47f1backed Alencar | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 190 | 65.3%124 W · 66 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Carnelossi | 35c | 30.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…4b01backed Alencar | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…5d15backed Alencar | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Alencar | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…6d82backed Alencar | 67c | 29.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Alencar | 53c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…0410backed Alencar | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Alencar | 65c | 21.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Carnelossi vs. Alencarthis page
- Ardelean vs. Conejo RuizArdelean won
- Cuamba vs. LeeCuamba won
- Delija vs. Cortes-AcostaCortes-Acosta won
- Dulgarian vs. del Valledel Valle won
- Dumas vs. JohnsonJohnson won
- Elekana vs. ChristianElekana won
- Garcia vs. OnamaGarcia won
- Radtke vs. FrunzaRadtke won
- Rowe vs. KoKo won
- Vieira vs. DumontDumont won
- Wells vs. GorimboWells won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.