UFC · resolved market
Ardelean vs. Conejo Ruiz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21d73e0bea7ce7e8f4ad7a13a8c6a3a3269176e5a4b19971c98bb32620155a44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ardeleanof Ardelean, Conejo Ruiz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $349,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfaa…2813backed Ardelean | 78c | 329,074$256,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,895.72 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Conejo Ruiz | 22c | 182,000$40,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,340 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Conejo Ruiz | 22c | 97,083$21,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,358.31 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Conejo Ruiz | 22c | 16,500$3,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,630 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Conejo Ruiz | 23c | 15,000$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Conejo Ruiz | 33c | 10,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Conejo Ruiz | 23c | 5,454$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.33 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Conejo Ruiz | 22c | 3,622$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.31 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Ardelean | 76c | 2,079$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…8abebacked Ardelean | 79c | 1,615$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.21 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Conejo Ruiz | 23c | 1,549$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.27 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Conejo Ruiz | 22c | 1,410$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.27 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x915d…65f9backed Conejo Ruiz | 20c | 894.18$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.84 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed Ardelean | 76c | 425.84$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Ardelean | 78c | 424.47$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Ardelean | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Conejo Ruiz | 26c | 388.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Conejo Ruiz | 29c | 349.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Ardelean | 76c | 349.99$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Conejo Ruiz | 24c | 329.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Conejo Ruiz | 22c | 310.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Conejo Ruiz | 21c | 228.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Conejo Ruiz | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Conejo Ruiz | 23c | 202.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Ardelean | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Conejo Ruiz | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…31c8backed Ardelean | 76c | 194$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…341bbacked Ardelean | 71c | 183.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…4340backed Conejo Ruiz | 25c | 177.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Conejo Ruiz | 17c | 148.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Conejo Ruiz | 22c | 142.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Conejo Ruiz | 28c | 135.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Ardelean | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Conejo Ruiz | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Conejo Ruiz | 28c | 107.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked Conejo Ruiz | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Conejo Ruiz | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Ardelean | 72c | 98.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Conejo Ruiz | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Ardelean | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…acc5backed Ardelean | 77c | 64.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked Ardelean | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Ardelean | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…47f1backed Ardelean | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 190 | 65.3%124 W · 66 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Ardelean | 78c | 35.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 166 | 55.4%92 W · 74 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…0410backed Ardelean | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…41aebacked Ardelean | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…4b01backed Ardelean | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…5d15backed Ardelean | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…a211backed Ardelean | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Ardelean | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ardelean vs. Conejo Ruizthis page
- Carnelossi vs. AlencarAlencar won
- Cuamba vs. LeeCuamba won
- Delija vs. Cortes-AcostaCortes-Acosta won
- Dulgarian vs. del Valledel Valle won
- Dumas vs. JohnsonJohnson won
- Elekana vs. ChristianElekana won
- Garcia vs. OnamaGarcia won
- Radtke vs. FrunzaRadtke won
- Rowe vs. KoKo won
- Vieira vs. DumontDumont won
- Wells vs. GorimboWells won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.