TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Garcia vs. Onama

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Garciaof Garcia, Onama
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$134,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x01ba…b77abacked Garcia55c20,744$11,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,362.1422259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Onama45c20,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,999.9635253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Onama45c19,000$8,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,549.986850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Onama46c14,445$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,600.1916951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Garcia55c11,000$6,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.146841.2%28 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Garcia55c10,655$5,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,828.317841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc06a…f31fbacked Garcia57c9,990$5,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,341.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Onama45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25011746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Garcia57c4,325$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.255232.7%17 W · 35 L-10.5wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-48.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Onama45c4,049$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,807.055459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Garcia54c3,988$2,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,834.4728849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Garcia55c3,760$2,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.0519544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9353…4229backed Garcia54c3,704$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.71127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-56%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Onama44c3,085$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.236533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab74…834dbacked Onama45c2,920$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.83650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Garcia56c2,177$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.323033.3%10 W · 20 L-7.1wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-45.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Garcia55c1,802$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.956937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Onama44c1,745$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.4118038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Onama44c1,700$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.9916247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Onama44c1,636$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.5219154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Onama45c1,600$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.0853956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Onama43c1,560$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.1726743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Onama45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67530964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Onama46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.9911140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Garcia58c1,469$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.4829848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae0…cf6abacked Onama44c1,374$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Onama45c1,348$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.289228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Onama4c1,270$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.714530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab2…2b11backed Garcia55c1,264$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.641442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Onama44c1,150$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.9721044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Onama46c1,111$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.8218141.4%75 W · 106 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ae1…fed4backed Garcia55c1,091$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.91850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Garcia55c1,079$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.35959.3%35 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Onama43c1,074$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.825253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c57…c94dbacked Garcia53c1,065$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.671457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Onama46c1,016$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.761442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Garcia55c999.98$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.9917850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Garcia55c999.97$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.991526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Onama46c977$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.428940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Garcia55c910$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Garcia56c900$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3964245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ab…341bbacked Garcia55c872.65$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.692441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9999…9868backed Garcia54c814.81$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.811758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x465b…41c3backed Onama46c809.56$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.186944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Garcia55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36032545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Onama15c766.46$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0820139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Onama41c700.24$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.8410928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Onama44c598.95$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.544425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Onama44c550.42$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.182060%12 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Onama20c528$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.237754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f0b…64dabacked Garcia58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Garcia55c515$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.559744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Garcia56c500$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.536745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Onama45c453.77$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.213450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61d…74d2backed Garcia53c449$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.71233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…e194backed Garcia58c434.06$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.062646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe216…e7b3backed Garcia56c429.72$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.723855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10cf…010dbacked Onama44c409.99$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.44344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Garcia56c376.49$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.87737.7%29 W · 48 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Onama40c360$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.27233.3%24 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Garcia55c350$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.513041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Garcia55c340$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1526741.8%28 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Onama47c333$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.514746.8%22 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14cf…594ebacked Onama45c322.22$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Onama42c301.47$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3312446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Garcia55c281.82$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8235664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Onama43c271.27$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.648140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Onama45c264.7$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1230039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Onama45c264.29$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5836655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Garcia75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.518145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa576…89a4backed Onama46c250$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Onama40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ef6…8c16backed Onama50c231.06$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.611337.2%42 W · 71 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a2d…d491backed Onama45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Garcia55c205.45$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4551533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Onama44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14c8…ce8bbacked Onama46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Garcia55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907830.8%24 W · 54 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x02f0…57b6backed Onama46c194.73$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.58650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Onama46c184.01$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6412147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Garcia55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.828752.9%46 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Garcia56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5735539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Garcia55c178.04$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.127960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Onama46c177.83$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.816851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cf…462ebacked Onama45c177$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.654542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85da…13b9backed Garcia55c176.06$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.062437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-34.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Onama46c174.88$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Garcia56c171.24$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.785152.9%27 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Garcia56c168.58$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5810043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Garcia55c156.32$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0148749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Onama24c152.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7614827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc18…4dc9backed Onama45c140.73$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Onama41c137$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.173737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c2…a30cbacked Garcia55c136.2$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6c5…ecfebacked Garcia76c131.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x396a…e1e4backed Garcia57c131$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.332846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdbe…d11cbacked Onama45c130$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.53262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x929c…8cb6backed Garcia55c120$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5411152.3%58 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e56…4398backed Garcia55c118.18$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.18955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Onama44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.