TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Radtke vs. Frunza

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Radtkeof Radtke, Frunza
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,668 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafba…e61bbacked Radtke62c78,312$48,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,856.4435253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Frunza38c60,544$23,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,006.5519544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Frunza39c7,000$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,71030039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Frunza38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90020249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Frunza38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.9822259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Frunza39c2,941$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.998940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Frunza5c2,286$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6420139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Radtke63c2,238$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8266569.2%45 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Frunza36c2,088$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.1228043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43a3…e3a5backed Frunza37c1,616$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Radtke60c1,523$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.0928849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Frunza40c1,506$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.537052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Frunza39c1,240$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.65451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Radtke61c1,240$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.68248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1747…bdf1backed Radtke62c1,128$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+96.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Frunza38c1,123$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.067841%32 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Radtke62c1,024$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.196937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Radtke62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38036745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Radtke61c999.99$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3908655.8%48 W · 38 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Radtke73c784$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4437754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Radtke56c653.77$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.4412262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f3…a4e4backed Radtke62c645.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.161861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+30.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Frunza4c640$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.614530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf366…8185backed Frunza41c609.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Frunza44c590.11$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7516156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Frunza39c576.92$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22535664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x176f…460abacked Frunza40c501.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Radtke62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19030964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Frunza38c380$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.419230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde9…20f1backed Radtke59c370$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Radtke59c364.64$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.52060%12 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Radtke61c327.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.926741.8%28 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Frunza39c322$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5813039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Frunza39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef6…8c16backed Frunza48c251.04$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011337.2%42 W · 71 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Radtke60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10019154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Frunza41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.522342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ab…341bbacked Frunza40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002441.7%10 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Radtke62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.946756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Radtke60c230$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.348749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Frunza10c208.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207233.3%24 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Frunza24c200.01$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.818141.4%75 W · 106 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Frunza38c199.98$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.997830.8%24 W · 54 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Frunza39c185.12$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.212147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Radtke59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4918644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ea…45ddbacked Frunza37c149.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-75.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Frunza39c145.9$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.936655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Radtke62c138.18$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5151533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Frunza39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.75455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…594ebacked Frunza39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Frunza36c125.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.348140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Frunza40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015848.1%76 W · 82 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14c8…ce8bbacked Radtke68c122.9$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.93268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Radtke62c120.97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.974746.8%22 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Frunza38c106.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4728743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Radtke59c106.25$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.561442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd02c…769fbacked Frunza25c103.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.922343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked Frunza39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015139.7%60 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Radtke61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398840.9%36 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Radtke61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396451.6%33 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Radtke51c98.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+70.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Radtke50c86.89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4516955.6%94 W · 75 L+23.8wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+59.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xbbef…c32bbacked Frunza39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Radtke57c70.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2712446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e87…6e9dbacked Radtke63c68.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4125…52ccbacked Radtke63c60.46$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.37742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Radtke61c54.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4510750.5%54 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Radtke61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.516736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd3…ac03backed Radtke61c45.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.91936.8%7 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-35.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Radtke62c45.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1616655.4%92 W · 74 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb256…b6dfbacked Frunza39c44.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c45…47f1backed Frunza40c37.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519065.3%124 W · 66 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Radtke62c37.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.36354%34 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2430…5b48backed Frunza39c33.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134560%27 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4571…0170backed Radtke62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Radtke62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.269744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7c54…4b01backed Radtke63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Radtke62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.422753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a56…695bbacked Radtke61c21.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc02…958abacked Radtke62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.63751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Radtke63c17.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5213647.8%65 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9512…c0d3backed Radtke64c17.08$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.081457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2551…8244backed Radtke64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.