Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0d63b3d06175f4cb0357d92926788c327d05b492c75cce61d8853311b109cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 858.33$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.42 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 847.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 63c | 440.1$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 83 | 80.7%67 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 420.46$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.53 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 420.28$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 55c | 338.06$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 72c | 330.26$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 926 | 40.2%372 W · 554 L | +114.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 59c | 310.82$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 177 | 35.6%63 W · 114 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 305.52$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.47 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 293$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.86 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 37c | 275.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.7 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 39c | 265.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.06 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 252.72$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 249.86$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 233.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.28 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 229.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 41c | 189.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.93 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 187.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 41c | 174.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 29c | 165.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 154.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.91 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 151.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 68c | 146.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 146.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 34c | 142.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 632 | 21.8%138 W · 494 L | -33.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 54c | 133.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 40c | 118.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 64c | 117.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 100.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe240…7cb3backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 99.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 99.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 99.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 94.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 92.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 87.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 24c | 86.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 84.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 19c | 83.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 79.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 77.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 53c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 75c | 70.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 69.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…773cbacked No | 66c | 63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 51c | 60.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 35c | 58.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 222 | 38.7%86 W · 136 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…7850backed No | 59c | 44.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 29c | 44.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 41c | 43.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 63c | 42.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 38.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 28c | 36.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 35.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 49c | 34.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 34c | 34.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 31.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 46c | 30.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 38c | 29.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…87c1backed Yes | 47c | 29.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 62c | 28.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 55c | 27.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 26.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 69c | 26.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 61c | 23.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…25d6backed Yes | 73c | 22.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked Yes | 75c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 18.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed No | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 77c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 135 | 23.7%32 W · 103 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.