Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump mention DeepSeek by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2f953e79c9fceb8feaeb04d4ef9ce901ef8d702c0c2cfae92c9b84135545ca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a09…8150backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca17…1e9ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 48c | 5,056$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.65 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 3c | 3,424$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 69c | 2,546$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.62 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 9c | 1,666$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 9c | 1,666$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 28c | 1,428$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…a0c7backed No | 75c | 1,257$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 69c | 993$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.06 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked No | 73c | 894.33$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 69c | 874.17$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.55 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 29c | 777$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.69 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 70c | 502.74$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.65 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…f1cbbacked Yes | 30c | 337.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f09…6ac1backed No | 77c | 335.37$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…590bbacked Yes | 30c | 280.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 31c | 269.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.4 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…b4a3backed No | 67c | 250$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 69c | 215$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 71c | 210.23$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.05 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…6ab8backed Yes | 21c | 208.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 23c | 174.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.23 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 28c | 162$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 121$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 70c | 67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 49c | 61.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f7…8569backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked No | 67c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…cf97backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7551…8871backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.