TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Guardiansof Orioles, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,397,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,512,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,397,293 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ee1…dae8backed Orioles42c1,024,844$427,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427,844.646456.3%36 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Guardians71c276,877$197,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,875.7322852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61bf…647ebacked Guardians58c253,991$148,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105,677.386642.4%28 W · 38 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Guardians58c132,196$76,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,226.3286751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Guardians60c117,332$69,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,399.4660249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe99a…918fbacked Guardians58c99,439$57,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,764.48966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Guardians58c83,654$48,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,941.7148254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Orioles40c61,790$24,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,71623545.1%106 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Guardians58c60,000$34,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,20024553.5%131 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Guardians58c44,566$25,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,802.611,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Guardians58c34,483$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,482.862259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Orioles43c20,000$8,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,599.8753150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Guardians60c19,500$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,80044456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa251…23ddbacked Guardians59c16,527$9,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,762.061225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Guardians59c15,000$8,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,15055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Guardians58c14,500$8,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0909749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Guardians61c13,032$7,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,035.4597950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Guardians58c11,400$6,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7391,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Guardians58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20041850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x616c…2ef3backed Orioles44c9,999$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ad…7fc3backed Guardians56c9,991$5,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,395.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians69c9,867$6,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,035.579,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Guardians58c7,300$4,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,06616352.1%85 W · 78 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Orioles41c7,117$2,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,917.9238047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Orioles40c7,075$2,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,83138949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians57c6,792$3,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,920.561,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Orioles35c5,942$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10013946.8%65 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians59c5,562$3,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.092,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Guardians59c5,359$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.7138444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Guardians60c5,300$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12026949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Guardians58c5,267$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.1326355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Guardians56c4,853$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.4950852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Orioles41c4,296$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.486550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Orioles43c3,629$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.9733554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Guardians58c3,620$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.473352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Orioles33c3,015$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00024154.4%131 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Guardians58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26026453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c95…0a3abacked Orioles44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32011555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Orioles38c2,966$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.6124248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Orioles11c2,863$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6917927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Orioles37c2,609$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.0433845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Guardians58c2,600$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09214446.5%67 W · 77 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Guardians59c2,390$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.837758.4%45 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc73b…943abacked Guardians56c2,200$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54fe…4f12backed Orioles44c2,200$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Guardians56c2,198$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.1431346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2377…5547backed Orioles44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Orioles43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9971751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a98…e6dabacked Guardians56c1,800$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+55.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Orioles25c1,656$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.193240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Guardians59c1,645$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.745940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1231…fbfdbacked Guardians56c1,600$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7041353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6966…7a8dbacked Guardians58c1,550$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6514045%18 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Orioles41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61537446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Orioles7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10527733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3797…8150backed Orioles44c1,400$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Guardians58c1,300$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54695850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Guardians59c1,283$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.845,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Guardians63c1,202$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.342842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Guardians79c1,088$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9196133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Guardians63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3702835.7%10 W · 18 L-5.9wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-37.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe572…f0bbbacked Guardians57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4301275%9 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+136.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Orioles42c915.47$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.191,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Orioles41c700$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28714148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Guardians60c625$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25043654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Orioles41c610$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.144443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Guardians58c600$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25233852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a4f…3aa5backed Orioles40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2403756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Orioles42c551$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.4224547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Orioles40c539.45$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7719449%95 W · 99 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Guardians56c520$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.816934.9%59 W · 110 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Guardians60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20042452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Guardians64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Orioles3c463.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.395053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25cc…3601backed Guardians57c441.97$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0510550.5%53 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcdc…15cabacked Guardians56c436.98$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.277847.4%37 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa8…a58ebacked Guardians57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.881833.3%6 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-46.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbb84…f704backed Orioles44c321.73$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Guardians59c312$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0714150.4%71 W · 70 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Orioles42c296$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3250843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Guardians57c278.37$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.75352.8%28 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Guardians60c276.5$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.612949.6%64 W · 65 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Orioles43c263.42$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked Orioles45c258.11$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.116552.1%86 W · 79 L+12.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Guardians58c255.97$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.521,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec70…0f93backed Orioles40c250.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.331618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x514b…ad6abacked Orioles8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207846.2%36 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Orioles40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Orioles44c238.64$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10599951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Orioles43c232.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1831347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Guardians57c231.58$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.586243.5%27 W · 35 L-9.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-27.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Orioles44c228.4$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.351,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Orioles44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Guardians55c219.98$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.991,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Orioles41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8215644.9%70 W · 86 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80e9…5105backed Orioles41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…9d12backed Orioles42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848253.7%44 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Orioles6c189.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians60c187$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.82,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Orioles41c186.15$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7214949.7%74 W · 75 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.