TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Aurora, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$539,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$624,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $539,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora57c90,739$52,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Tundra Esports41c35,912$14,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,247.88847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports15c23,459$3,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,034.331,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4c…ac04backed Tundra Esports26c18,227$4,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,411.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Tundra Esports45c13,490$6,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,397.9942650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Aurora55c13,044$7,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,174.1318351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Tundra Esports45c13,004$5,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,152.396557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Tundra Esports39c10,007$3,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,101.5169644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed Tundra Esports58c9,504$5,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,992.7140051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed Tundra Esports42c9,130$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,279.2212350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Aurora42c7,790$3,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,283.6338855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Tundra Esports44c6,797$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,796.6714825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Tundra Esports48c5,892$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,063.7513851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora59c5,890$3,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,482.4879859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Aurora52c5,729$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,97643344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Tundra Esports60c5,148$3,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,07748954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora76c5,120$3,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,877.541,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Tundra Esports48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60019847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Tundra Esports25c4,934$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,695.889741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Aurora42c4,770$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,017.2550347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Tundra Esports36c4,711$1,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,002.9477458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Aurora71c4,553$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,231.51,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora62c4,314$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,690.741,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora51c3,908$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.872,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Tundra Esports47c3,689$1,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.0556955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Aurora52c3,685$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90046451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Aurora79c3,539$2,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,793.2848057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9c…4cb4backed Tundra Esports44c3,507$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.882744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…6ed0backed Tundra Esports72c3,401$2,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.261989.5%17 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.24per pick66cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Tundra Esports70c3,239$2,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.2412557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29e8…091cbacked Aurora32c3,162$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.882030%6 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Tundra Esports48c3,100$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.9936248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Tundra Esports45c3,002$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.0229348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62060349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Aurora33c2,872$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.4610743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked Aurora54c2,759$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Aurora80c2,546$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,036.3568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora79c2,491$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.9289749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Tundra Esports39c2,469$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.087152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Aurora22c2,300$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009630.2%29 W · 67 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Aurora59c2,282$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.7915739.5%62 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Aurora79c2,276$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80028251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Aurora34c2,266$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.631,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Aurora43c2,215$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.9751049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Aurora46c2,209$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.6769132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Aurora52c2,150$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11895342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd578…4d58backed Aurora1c2,039$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Aurora42c2,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85020145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Aurora28c1,951$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.7139343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Tundra Esports47c1,881$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.9827153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora55c1,790$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97741055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Tundra Esports47c1,714$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.2992056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Tundra Esports67c1,682$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.0627737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Tundra Esports49c1,678$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.0335758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked Tundra Esports44c1,637$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.9215957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Aurora39c1,538$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.811968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+78.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked Tundra Esports67c1,501$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.6648843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Aurora2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Aurora1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15350%0 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Aurora33c1,500$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.4751544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Tundra Esports43c1,475$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.063225%8 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Tundra Esports49c1,392$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Tundra Esports66c1,363$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.578459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf346…1b8ebacked Aurora1c1,336$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3622438.8%87 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora60c1,292$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.2888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15dd…11dbbacked Aurora61c1,285$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.611346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a6…03abbacked Tundra Esports61c1,279$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.716555.4%36 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Tundra Esports56c1,259$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5598944.9%40 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Tundra Esports39c1,230$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.365441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora54c1,221$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.2586659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Tundra Esports21c1,220$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.1291553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Tundra Esports42c1,200$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69631547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd867…03fabacked Aurora1c1,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Tundra Esports39c1,046$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.614652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora52c1,033$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.0439660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Tundra Esports48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…0f8fbacked Aurora56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.991020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-63.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Tundra Esports68c899.99$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28836343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Tundra Esports23c889.23$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.7633845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Tundra Esports23c831.4$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.181,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports46c800$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.941,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Aurora35c800$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28096245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Aurora51c800$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40849644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c1…8174backed Tundra Esports52c799.3$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.4824947.8%119 W · 130 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora38c791.05$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Tundra Esports41c765.48$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.6348053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Aurora47c758.9$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.681,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Tundra Esports49c735.16$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.8935151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Aurora32c700$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9528549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora61c700$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42753652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Tundra Esports67c697.29$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.4835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9438…7cd2backed Aurora33c675.38$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.63333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Aurora53c674.11$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.2855251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Aurora51c655$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.3917248.3%83 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Tundra Esports73c649.51$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4953764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eae…75f9backed Aurora31c645.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdfa…7491backed Tundra Esports61c640.02$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.036544.6%29 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Tundra Esports46c612.52$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.7629548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Aurora66c594.45$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.518851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.