TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$419,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$475,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $419,685 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora60c45,095$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,094.691,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Tundra Esports40c44,847$17,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,929.268847.7%42 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora60c31,592$19,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,493.7328159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Tundra Esports36c27,663$9,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,863.4533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Aurora64c22,898$14,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,280.2419847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Tundra Esports37c21,533$8,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,041.229042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora60c18,959$11,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,543.9496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora63c16,184$10,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,042.7528748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports25c12,502$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,170.431,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Tundra Esports40c12,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Aurora62c11,689$7,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,456.8618351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Tundra Esports38c10,152$3,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,880.4543344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Tundra Esports35c10,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,45041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Tundra Esports41c10,000$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.9956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora69c9,419$6,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,924.371,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Tundra Esports21c8,579$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.1421144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Aurora65c8,526$5,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.0913851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Tundra Esports38c7,325$2,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,784.7269644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Tundra Esports29c7,086$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.8735062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Tundra Esports39c5,705$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.9938855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Tundra Esports38c5,203$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00039343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Tundra Esports36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.9922848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed Tundra Esports42c4,722$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Tundra Esports25c4,500$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.8777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora64c4,263$2,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.6856955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Tundra Esports21c3,505$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.961,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Aurora64c3,269$2,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.8425248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Aurora61c3,222$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.5850347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Aurora80c3,129$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.9735960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Tundra Esports39c3,118$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.9477256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Tundra Esports31c2,919$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.1568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Aurora60c2,742$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.6616746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Tundra Esports34c2,550$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.1636547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Tundra Esports29c2,527$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.545750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Tundra Esports40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Tundra Esports42c2,500$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.6492056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Tundra Esports16c2,466$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9934468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Tundra Esports26c2,445$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.682,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Aurora65c2,300$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80536248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…74fcbacked Aurora67c2,257$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.735251.9%27 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15dd…11dbbacked Aurora65c2,243$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.991346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Tundra Esports20c2,098$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.21,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Aurora75c2,019$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.8279859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Aurora64c2,000$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Aurora58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84046451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Tundra Esports42c1,847$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.7126956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Tundra Esports41c1,834$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.7751140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd89d…d6b7backed Tundra Esports5c1,763$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.295339.6%21 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Tundra Esports21c1,637$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.481,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Aurora62c1,610$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.841055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Aurora62c1,606$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.4223459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Aurora59c1,600$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65625752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4620…ea85backed Tundra Esports25c1,551$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.793935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Tundra Esports3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Aurora63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.9941351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Tundra Esports30c1,480$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44495342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports34c1,434$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.6577941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed Aurora60c1,333$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.338459.5%50 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd972…d4adbacked Aurora68c1,282$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Tundra Esports36c1,272$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45822340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a5…518abacked Tundra Esports41c1,240$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.4825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-68.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Tundra Esports17c1,222$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2112136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Tundra Esports40c1,207$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.835737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Tundra Esports39c1,200$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46831547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Tundra Esports37c1,164$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.85740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Aurora78c1,152$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.3520767.1%139 W · 68 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Tundra Esports34c1,120$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.832652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3167…32a2backed Tundra Esports18c1,114$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012151.2%62 W · 59 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tundra Esports27c1,111$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora66c1,096$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.479959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora68c1,056$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.6986659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Tundra Esports26c1,055$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.327737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Tundra Esports31c1,012$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.5191553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Tundra Esports12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Tundra Esports40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Aurora57c999.99$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4305244.2%23 W · 29 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Tundra Esports15c997.89$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3420030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Aurora66c989$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.2635151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports22c978.32$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.941,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Tundra Esports36c899.99$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32436343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked Aurora63c882.52$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.5220859.6%124 W · 84 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Aurora60c850$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34027060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Aurora61c840$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.65853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Tundra Esports27c816.41$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.71,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd592…9618backed Aurora60c801.93$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.929636.5%35 W · 61 L-9.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports40c800$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.211,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Tundra Esports25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008944.9%40 W · 49 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora59c797.29$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.8985851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Tundra Esports38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Tundra Esports35c784.54$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.595949.2%29 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Tundra Esports35c714.39$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.8745352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Tundra Esports6c699.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Tundra Esports7c660.51$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4237811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Aurora57c642.61$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.3288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Tundra Esports19c630$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.620820.7%43 W · 165 L-18.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d18…0465backed Aurora64c606.07$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.191369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Tundra Esports34c552.63$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5434051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31f4…bb20backed Tundra Esports39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-61%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Tundra Esports27c502.15$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9369132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab71…2adabacked Aurora60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004647.8%22 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.