TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,959 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…9044backed No24c1,417$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.438920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No32c950.23$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.631,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes48c716.27$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.414,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes39c620$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.851,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes52c570$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.531,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes42c457.11$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.816,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c401.18$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.348,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c388.6$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.65,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c382.67$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes4c304$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.466219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes30c297.49$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.894450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes30c292$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.252,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No49c254.29$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.973,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No32c241.66$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.24,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes34c239$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.051,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No65c226.92$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6270741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes26c218.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.554,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes30c209.63$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.841,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-59.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No62c199.3$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.743,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes79c197.83$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4730144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c196.85$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.495,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c189.05$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.664,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c179.39$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes25c158.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3423241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked No19c154.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2642820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes40c126.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.941,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.220838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c115.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.059,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa596…9316backed No59c114.09$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.78875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No39c111.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6441760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c107.65$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.659,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No58c102.16$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.911,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes41c100.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4368335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c98$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.743,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes79c95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8324841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes26c89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.477,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes44c88.64$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c81.77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.726,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes33c78.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.622638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c77.73$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.561,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa9e…2264backed No17c77.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3610351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes54c73.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c73.71$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.273,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes41c72.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5215152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No47c71.89$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.841,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes28c71.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.341,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No56c68.14$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9883360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No51c65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3285049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes71c63.04$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0399961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No62c61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.481,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.735,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No56c59.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0752758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes48c59.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0637942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes66c57.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7131062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3c16…d262backed No45c56.11$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.117757.1%44 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No46c54.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6980560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes45c54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.32,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db3…547dbacked Yes26c52.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6717352%90 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes48c51.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes44c50.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.146743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No53c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3933962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No49c49.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.861,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No59c46.86$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2191861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes45c44.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefe7…a709backed No46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.482740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes55c43.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.83,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c42.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.215,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No45c41.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.772,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes53c40.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6712438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.825954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes75c39.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.131,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No59c38.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.864,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No57c37.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2326458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f26…93bcbacked No55c35.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.175641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No52c35.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.211,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes51c35.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0921651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked No70c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.557747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes64c34.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.844744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe462…7f94backed Yes62c34.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No54c33.72$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.552,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No63c33.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.412,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes43c31.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.321,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes35c30.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.769545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes73c30.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes55c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.493,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No54c29.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4271649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No58c29.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.192,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No42c29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.763,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03b5…c585backed No53c28.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.682240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa967…79a5backed Yes70c28.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208050%40 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes44c28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3220842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No63c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.361,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No53c26.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.693,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes52c26.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5316046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes51c26.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2726256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.