Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb83e465bdf190705d637ae8390ea2e7200d1a687f85ac40ceedcf803d3bc5dfa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed No | 24c | 1,417$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.43 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 32c | 950.23$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.63 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 716.27$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 620$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 52c | 570$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.53 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 457.11$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 401.18$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 388.6$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 382.67$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 304$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ba…1deabacked Yes | 30c | 297.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 292$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 254.29$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 241.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 34c | 239$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 65c | 226.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 218.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 209.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 199.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 79c | 197.83$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.47 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 196.85$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 189.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 179.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 25c | 158.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 19c | 154.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 126.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 115.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…9316backed No | 59c | 114.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 39c | 111.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 107.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 102.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 100.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 79c | 95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 44c | 88.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 81.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 33c | 78.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 77.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 17c | 77.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 54c | 73.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 73.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 41c | 72.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 71.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 71.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 56c | 68.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 71c | 63.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 59.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 48c | 59.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 66c | 57.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 45c | 56.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 46c | 54.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 26c | 52.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 48c | 51.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 44c | 50.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 49c | 49.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 46.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 43.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 42.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 41.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 53c | 40.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 38.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 57c | 37.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 55c | 35.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 52c | 35.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 51c | 35.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 64c | 34.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…7f94backed Yes | 62c | 34.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 33.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 33.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 31.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 35c | 30.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 73c | 30.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 54c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 29.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed No | 53c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 70c | 28.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 26.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 52c | 26.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 51c | 26.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.