NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb912df9fcce964627141b94479ace70c19a06403b490b2273b31d76d94986fa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Mavericks, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $348,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Jazz | 50c | 284,310$142,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142,155 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Mavericks | 50c | 216,000$108,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108,000 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Mavericks | 53c | 50,000$26,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,499.97 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Mavericks | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Jazz | 47c | 26,496$12,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,042.71 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jazz | 47c | 8,611$4,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,563.86 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks | 49c | 7,596$3,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,756.02 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 50c | 6,587$3,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,318.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…0924backed Mavericks | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Mavericks | 50c | 4,439$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 52c | 3,478$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.07 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Mavericks | 44c | 1,600$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 51c | 1,228$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.39 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…ac26backed Jazz | 48c | 961.53$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Jazz | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Jazz | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Mavericks | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Jazz | 48c | 497.28$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.59 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae7…0319backed Mavericks | 50c | 399.2$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Mavericks | 52c | 375$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Jazz | 28c | 346.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.13 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd925…3ab5backed Jazz | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Jazz | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Jazz | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 49c | 304.14$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.89 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Mavericks | 52c | 280.87$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.05 | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mavericks | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Mavericks | 53c | 235.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Mavericks | 53c | 228.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Jazz | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Mavericks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Mavericks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Jazz | 58c | 173.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Jazz | 36c | 153$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | +12.3wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 47c | 144.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Mavericks | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Jazz | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0319…2f43backed Mavericks | 52c | 116.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Mavericks | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Jazz | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Mavericks | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Mavericks | 52c | 99.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Mavericks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 63%80 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Mavericks | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Mavericks | 41c | 92.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 358 | 44.1%158 W · 200 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf443…1ea1backed Jazz | 73c | 88.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Jazz | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Mavericks | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…be5abacked Mavericks | 53c | 74.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Mavericks | 55c | 71.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Mavericks | 53c | 53.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Mavericks | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Jazz | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Jazz | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Jazz | 48c | 39.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8d…f98cbacked Mavericks | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…0f5dbacked Mavericks | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Jazz | 48c | 34.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed Mavericks | 52c | 33.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Mavericks | 44c | 32.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Mavericks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…7f18backed Mavericks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Jazz | 47c | 27.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Mavericks | 37c | 27.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Jazz | 63c | 27.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Jazz | 47c | 26.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba07…1c15backed Jazz | 47c | 26.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 51c | 22.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Jazz | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)this page
- Mavericks vs. JazzJazz won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineJazz won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5Under won
- Mavericks vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.