TailMyPicks
Market

WNBA · resolved market

Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago Skyof Chicago Sky, Minnesota Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$323,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Chicago Sky32c92,309$29,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,769.84580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+85.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Minnesota Lynx68c67,824$46,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,120.3236754%198 W · 169 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Minnesota Lynx68c50,000$34,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,999.9913950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Chicago Sky32c22,258$7,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,135.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky36c5,869$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,728.711,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Chicago Sky29c5,797$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,115.752751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx56c4,201$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.461,01247.9%485 W · 527 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Minnesota Lynx71c3,997$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,838.1110348.5%50 W · 53 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minnesota Lynx9c3,574$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.3639150.4%197 W · 194 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf00c…f4febacked Minnesota Lynx33c2,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Minnesota Lynx60c2,969$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.674438.6%17 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Chicago Sky32c2,960$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,012.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+69.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Chicago Sky38c2,649$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.924829.2%14 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Chicago Sky32c2,325$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x586a…6610backed Chicago Sky38c2,020$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Chicago Sky30c1,892$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.652030%6 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx30c1,727$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.771,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Chicago Sky45c1,663$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.4836950.9%188 W · 181 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Lynx67c1,517$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.6823245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed Chicago Sky53c1,461$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Minnesota Lynx70c1,429$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Chicago Sky29c1,363$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.495044%22 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Chicago Sky35c1,296$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.6113745.3%62 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Chicago Sky31c1,296$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.8214942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Sky29c1,261$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.5147246.8%221 W · 251 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Chicago Sky30c1,167$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.664652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked Minnesota Lynx11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed Minnesota Lynx70c964.11$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Minnesota Lynx61c930.8$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.543842.1%16 W · 22 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf706…f685backed Minnesota Lynx69c900.19$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.751145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3201…27a4backed Chicago Sky71c896.33$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Sky30c874.49$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.7351552.6%271 W · 244 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Minnesota Lynx49c838$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.022673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cb7…3644backed Minnesota Lynx62c806.79$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Minnesota Lynx2c750$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2045…c77cbacked Minnesota Lynx59c749.99$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.293458.8%20 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Minnesota Lynx1c726.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Sky67c721.17$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.9924852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21df…fdbcbacked Chicago Sky74c675$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51f9…26f8backed Chicago Sky31c671.64$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Minnesota Lynx60c665.73$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.141266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Chicago Sky53c655.74$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.7761242.3%259 W · 353 L-31.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Sky68c643.35$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.4435254.3%191 W · 161 L+21.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4a3…801cbacked Minnesota Lynx78c640.18$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Chicago Sky58c612.52$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.861163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Chicago Sky33c591.58$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.3613124.4%32 W · 99 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Lynx37c574.58$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9426247.7%125 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fac…6b48backed Minnesota Lynx36c549.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked Minnesota Lynx49c502.85$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.06922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked Minnesota Lynx37c500$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x941f…bac9backed Minnesota Lynx11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5550%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Minnesota Lynx35c499.94$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.981637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Chicago Sky78c495.32$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8231443%135 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Minnesota Lynx69c490.49$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.442245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed Chicago Sky62c486.63$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Minnesota Lynx65c460.61$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Chicago Sky39c441.43$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.8619628.6%56 W · 140 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Chicago Sky30c436.39$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c3…6603backed Chicago Sky37c415.93$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+113.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Minnesota Lynx62c408.37$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.786237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5839…3fa8backed Minnesota Lynx67c402.49$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.41per pick55cpaid-65.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Minnesota Lynx20c400.02$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.239129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Minnesota Lynx70c399.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Chicago Sky29c397.1$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.94560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+153.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Sky45c391.86$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.1285158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Chicago Sky68c375$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.715351%78 W · 75 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Minnesota Lynx23c346.49$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2832148.6%156 W · 165 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Minnesota Lynx62c346.07$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.977431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e70…9a38backed Minnesota Lynx65c325$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Chicago Sky40c320.73$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.441838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Minnesota Lynx33c299.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.813253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Minnesota Lynx21c286.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.261631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-42%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Minnesota Lynx70c283$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.11662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked Chicago Sky72c278.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.063073.3%22 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Minnesota Lynx51c275.91$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.321942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Chicago Sky80c270$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.17259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c8…3c52backed Chicago Sky32c267.54$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.76955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8312…e7d3backed Minnesota Lynx8c263.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Chicago Sky39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.417946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Minnesota Lynx29c255.28$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.083056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Sky71c254.67$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6437650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Minnesota Lynx78c241$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.671936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Minnesota Lynx30c233.17$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Minnesota Lynx68c211.02$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.832853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Minnesota Lynx49c202.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.425345.8%116 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Chicago Sky31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1384047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Lynx23c190.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1451147.2%241 W · 270 L-2.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago Sky65c190.01$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5632047.8%153 W · 167 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed Chicago Sky61c180.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.022040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Chicago Sky63c175.17$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.992157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Chicago Sky30c174.63$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2432749.5%162 W · 165 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago Sky60c171.74$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2756455.1%311 W · 253 L+27.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Chicago Sky50c168$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.424148.8%20 W · 21 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Chicago Sky30c165.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.71742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Minnesota Lynx35c160.6$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.352437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Chicago Sky54c156$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.344746.8%22 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+29.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Minnesota Lynx68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Chicago Sky34c147.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.041947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7268…7e00backed Minnesota Lynx68c145.54$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.97650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3762…1b2ebacked Chicago Sky66c138$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.