NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb778c31491c86610fd553de9ecb6425453a12e245edb97be6012537bcc56527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 53c | 70,248$37,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,227.58 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 47c | 54,164$25,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,706.81 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 17,271$8,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,108.42 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 52c | 7,396$3,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840.54 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 2,133$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.56 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Over | 52c | 950$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…0e4cbacked Under | 48c | 920.36$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.77 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…bcfebacked Over | 49c | 858.89$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.03 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked Under | 53c | 769.14$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.31 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 61c | 721.99$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.43 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 523.47$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7192…7000backed Under | 51c | 354.47$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…6edebacked Under | 7c | 283.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 225.73$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 47c | 197.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Over | 47c | 189.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Under | 6c | 161.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 106 | 23.6%25 W · 81 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 150.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Under | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 48c | 146.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 47c | 131.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 47c | 131.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 129.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Under | 52c | 123$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 18c | 113.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…81b9backed Under | 54c | 104.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…a62dbacked Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 22c | 101.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 93.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Under | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 47c | 65.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 47c | 65.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 47c | 65.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 47c | 65.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 47c | 65.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 47c | 65.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 47c | 65.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 47c | 65.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 47c | 65.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under | 53c | 63.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Over | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Over | 51c | 58.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 56c | 58.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…18f1backed Under | 53c | 54.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 50c | 52.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 48c | 44.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 54c | 44.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb5…b700backed Under | 52c | 37.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 49c | 37.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 48c | 36.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Over | 47c | 26.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 47c | 23.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…07d1backed Under | 53c | 22.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 46c | 21.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…43e9backed Under | 51c | 21.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Over | 79c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Mavericks won
- Mavericks vs. SpursSpurs won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-18.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.