NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5a950ec826933776973416a0dba3a784df6a7e8d7d7bfc2b7a483cdf6816d96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Mavericks | 37c | 4,395$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.49 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Spurs | 57c | 2,111$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.76 | 433 | 52.2%226 W · 207 L | +19.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked Mavericks | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.97 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Spurs | 70c | 1,955$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.91 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 29c | 1,358$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks | 42c | 1,320$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.43 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Spurs | 50c | 1,310$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.65 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Mavericks | 47c | 1,235$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.97 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…99ddbacked Spurs | 58c | 1,073$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.55 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…50b7backed Spurs | 58c | 1,003$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.88 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Spurs | 58c | 974.8$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.42 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 43c | 878.12$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.95 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Mavericks | 43c | 678.96$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.95 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mavericks | 47c | 499.9$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.38 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Mavericks | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Mavericks | 41c | 358.15$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Mavericks | 66c | 314.36$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.68 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Mavericks | 48c | 296.7$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.41 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Spurs | 58c | 292.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Mavericks | 46c | 278.87$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.13 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked Mavericks | 80c | 274.27$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Spurs | 53c | 269.19$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Spurs | 54c | 266.35$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.52 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Mavericks | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Spurs | 60c | 232.13$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Mavericks | 48c | 219.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Spurs | 52c | 196.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Mavericks | 39c | 192.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…fcd1backed Spurs | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Spurs | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 473 | 57.9%274 W · 199 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Spurs | 61c | 139.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Spurs | 56c | 138.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Mavericks | 41c | 128.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Spurs | 53c | 126.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spurs | 38c | 125.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Mavericks | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Spurs | 53c | 106.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Spurs | 53c | 99.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Spurs | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Spurs | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Mavericks | 51c | 94.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed Spurs | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Spurs | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Spurs | 61c | 74.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Mavericks | 44c | 72.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Mavericks | 43c | 71.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Mavericks | 42c | 69.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Mavericks | 51c | 61.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Mavericks | 43c | 51.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc05e…5f93backed Spurs | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Spurs | 62c | 47.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Mavericks | 41c | 45.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Mavericks | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…5a84backed Mavericks | 43c | 43.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…4366backed Mavericks | 71c | 41.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks | 38c | 38.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Spurs | 59c | 37.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…4b14backed Spurs | 60c | 36.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Spurs | 53c | 35.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Mavericks | 65c | 35.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Spurs | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Spurs | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Mavericks | 48c | 32.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Mavericks | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks | 43c | 29.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Spurs | 56c | 27.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd7…1d26backed Spurs | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…803abacked Spurs | 53c | 27.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Mavericks | 45c | 26.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Spurs | 47c | 24.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…8263backed Mavericks | 48c | 23.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Spurs | 59c | 23.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Mavericks | 47c | 22.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…aa94backed Spurs | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Spurs | 59c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…3c85backed Spurs | 53c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Spurs | 65c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Spurs | 56c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Spurs | 57c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Mavericks won
- Mavericks vs. SpursSpurs won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 235.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-18.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.