TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 243.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,278 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x161a…4103backed Over51c152.05$77 inWon+$75.012,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over59c152$90 inWon+$62.3252052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Under44c106.21$47 inLost-$46.741,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Under42c105.99$45 inLost-$44.522924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under28c97.09$27 inLost-$26.981,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Over60c60.67$36 inWon+$24.5217436.2%63 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2254…e6e5backed Over71c56.58$40 inWon+$16.584734%16 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under51c54.32$28 inLost-$27.929,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over54c50.57$27 inWon+$23.162,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cab…8228backed Over51c48.73$25 inWon+$23.732222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd637…be9abacked Under50c44$22 inLost-$22.1816052.5%84 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfda1…454fbacked Under41c31.25$13 inLost-$12.812123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-49.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x29aa…e4eabacked Under41c31.25$13 inLost-$12.812119%4 W · 17 L-5.5wins-0.26per pick45cpaid-59.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x832f…df63backed Over37c30.43$11 inWon+$19.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over56c22.73$13 inWon+$103,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.