NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4e820bfd3b67f9ee158b107fa14dbe2afe351e4233c46dcbdd5ad7c1f52eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,641 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Over | 50c | 15,756$7,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,929.12 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 6,069$2,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,947.12 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 4,573$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 2,307$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.69 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 49c | 1,200$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Over | 51c | 1,171$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.15 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 50c | 860$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 842.02$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.23 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 49c | 577$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Over | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 471.75$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.16 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 466.78$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 45c | 320$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 251.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 50c | 196.37$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Over | 57c | 193.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 71c | 172.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 50c | 167.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…3f14backed Under | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…0478backed Over | 57c | 139.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 50c | 130.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…ddf6backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 55c | 116.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Under | 50c | 112.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 179 | 60.9%109 W · 70 L | +17.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 61c | 103.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 28c | 94.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 39c | 89.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Over | 55c | 88.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Over | 51c | 78.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 49c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a4…78a2backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 30c | 62.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 60.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 55c | 60.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Under | 49c | 54.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c3…48e8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…e6a9backed Under | 46c | 37.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 44c | 33.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Under | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Under | 49c | 31.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 61c | 29.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 50c | 27.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…b505backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 57c | 23.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…de37backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 49cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 52c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 243.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 244.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 246.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 247.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 248.5Over won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.