TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,490 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No64c1,368$871 inWon+$496.731,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf642…7353backed Yes1c1,209$15 inLost-$151723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-58.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Yes36c826.35$300 inLost-$30027746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeab…6006backed Yes38c365.22$137 inLost-$1371040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef4e…a79abacked Yes35c343.46$120 inLost-$1203844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d6d…f513backed Yes35c192$66 inLost-$66.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8bd…c55abacked No71c131.89$94 inWon+$38.344557.8%26 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked No64c99.24$64 inWon+$35.7327059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No65c97.14$63 inWon+$3416139.8%64 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b2…fda3backed Yes28c95.61$27 inLost-$26.71822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c79.37$50 inWon+$29.3797049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No64c61.11$39 inWon+$2222774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No66c56$37 inWon+$19.0495260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No66c52.46$34 inWon+$18.0392058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d5…ea64backed Yes33c46.36$15 inLost-$15.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6db1…ae9ebacked Yes33c45.05$15 inLost-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07f…08d6backed Yes37c43.11$16 inLost-$15.952634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdda2…ba18backed Yes31c39.47$12 inLost-$12.255131.4%16 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No67c36.36$24 inWon+$1288057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No68c28$19 inWon+$9.0332866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No66c26$17 inWon+$8.844,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f45…2347backed No69c22.89$16 inWon+$7.1528100%28 W · 0 L+9.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No67c20$13 inWon+$6.796956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.