NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9d76fd5da0ddda16c7b63d76f8970cda5b2332d5b575f6e959b75cb11ff646e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,432 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 52c | 51,192$26,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,572.07 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a57…2afabacked Over | 53c | 20,404$10,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,589.71 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed Under | 48c | 19,305$9,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,266.4 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 9,911$4,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,687.46 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 47c | 8,697$4,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,062.42 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 48c | 6,250$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 389 | 46%179 W · 210 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 47c | 5,255$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,470 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 4,193$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 44c | 3,128$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.32 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 2,936$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.04 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…d21dbacked Under | 48c | 2,910$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Under | 48c | 2,910$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,936$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.43 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 1,128$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.42 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 284.86$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 47c | 224.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 48c | 203.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 38c | 160.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 62c | 160.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.51 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Over | 54c | 148.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…e44abacked Over | 53c | 136$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 55c | 131.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 272 | 46.7%127 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 50c | 110.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 44c | 79.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 56c | 70.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 64.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…de37backed Under | 44c | 57.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 49cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 55.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 53.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Over | 53c | 50.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 22c | 47.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 46c | 47.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…e914backed Under | 49c | 41.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 40.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Under | 48c | 29.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…37d5backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 45c | 27.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec1…bfa6backed Over | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed Over | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 243.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 244.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 246.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 247.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 248.5Over won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.