TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,290 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77a5…56f3backed Thunder46c688.09$317 inWon+$371.57966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+45.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x739a…f78abacked Nuggets54c569.59$308 inLost-$307.581650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa793…2bb7backed Thunder49c565.55$278 inWon+$287.782466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfeb1…8ec8backed Nuggets54c201.75$109 inLost-$108.951650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd92…50a5backed Thunder46c195.96$90 inWon+$105.821668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuggets52c192$100 inLost-$99.842,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3297…43cdbacked Thunder46c186.02$86 inWon+$100.451250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4c…41c4backed Thunder46c185.96$86 inWon+$100.422070%14 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf93d…49e4backed Nuggets54c185.73$100 inLost-$100.291338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9794…32c9backed Nuggets54c183.56$99 inLost-$99.122050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets50c182.56$92 inLost-$92.195,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets51c123.36$63 inLost-$63.152,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb431…b654backed Nuggets54c117.05$63 inLost-$63.211947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Nuggets47c46.21$22 inLost-$21.721,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Thunder43c27.54$12 inWon+$15.71,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4168…a631backed Thunder48c25.01$12 inWon+$13.0412146.3%56 W · 65 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.