TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,047

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,047 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd92…6b2abacked Nuggets51c31,000$15,810 inWon+$15,19012639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Thunder49c26,072$12,775 inLost-$12,775.238251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets49c9,864$4,809 inWon+$5,054.191,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Thunder53c6,230$3,273 inLost-$3,273.52,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Thunder50c3,500$1,750 inLost-$1,75058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder50c3,000$1,500 inLost-$1,5001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Thunder52c1,923$1,000 inLost-$1,0001,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets47c1,507$709 inWon+$797.84,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Thunder49c1,056$518 inLost-$51841649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Thunder51c588.24$300 inLost-$30011142.3%47 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder51c506.17$256 inLost-$256.059,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Nuggets51c490.2$250 inWon+$240.216740.1%67 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Nuggets46c438.04$200 inWon+$238.0421950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Thunder49c408.16$200 inLost-$20036143.5%157 W · 204 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets49c357.09$175 inWon+$182.111,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Thunder48c244.13$117 inLost-$117.1816943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd62d…5992backed Nuggets52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.3137852.9%200 W · 178 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Thunder52c148.07$77 inLost-$7791846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6695…de37backed Thunder47c124.64$58 inLost-$58.361010%1 W · 9 L-3.9wins-0.39per pick49cpaid-86.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xda54…6acebacked Thunder45c111.06$50 inLost-$50850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Nuggets56c107.14$60 inWon+$47.1413852.2%72 W · 66 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Thunder43c68.92$30 inLost-$29.921,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a13…271dbacked Nuggets50c56$28 inWon+$284450%22 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x936c…5523backed Nuggets57c54.95$31 inWon+$23.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder59c49.15$29 inLost-$291,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Thunder43c46.4$20 inLost-$201,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Thunder50c40$20 inLost-$2088057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nuggets55c39.81$22 inWon+$17.983,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Nuggets52c39.08$20 inWon+$18.7668542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x123f…c241backed Thunder52c38.46$20 inLost-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Thunder49c35.71$17 inLost-$17.576250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x134c…eeefbacked Nuggets63c33.78$21 inWon+$12.58250%41 W · 41 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Thunder43c33$14 inLost-$14.232,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc6b…d720backed Thunder50c30$15 inLost-$1510357.3%59 W · 44 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f6e…6a74backed Nuggets55c30$17 inWon+$13.521651.4%111 W · 105 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e26…fdefbacked Thunder58c24.14$14 inLost-$144548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Thunder50c20$10 inLost-$1056454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44e…c6b8backed Thunder50c20$10 inLost-$104040%16 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c29…fb0bbacked Thunder50c20$10 inLost-$102458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.