TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,872 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Thunder41c5,639$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.312,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Nuggets58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68010045%45 W · 55 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Nuggets54c3,960$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.4272241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder44c3,171$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.929,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Nuggets58c2,846$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.341,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets54c2,775$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.591,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Thunder47c2,126$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012341.5%51 W · 72 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder43c1,951$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.126,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Nuggets56c1,790$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.385655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Nuggets53c1,766$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.9820647.6%98 W · 108 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Nuggets54c1,111$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.1114450.7%73 W · 71 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Thunder47c1,021$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48013138.2%50 W · 81 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Thunder47c859.57$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40417454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Nuggets53c660$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.221045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Nuggets58c621.66$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.521,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder43c553.72$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.221,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nuggets58c516.65$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.124,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Thunder47c515.12$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.111,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder43c476.79$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.291,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Thunder47c436.92$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3537842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe86…6763backed Thunder47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010243.1%44 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder40c408.44$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.833,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed Thunder48c389.08$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.766552.3%34 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Thunder42c378.74$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.192,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder42c376$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.924,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…4c18backed Nuggets57c350$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Nuggets52c329.98$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.3928751.9%149 W · 138 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Nuggets63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4648957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder45c285.69$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.718,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea3…a8aebacked Nuggets56c273.9$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.556858.8%40 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed Thunder47c252.66$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7519245.3%87 W · 105 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Nuggets60c251.47$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9768542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Thunder48c242.11$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7961747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3b…d0b8backed Nuggets58c239.87$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.871060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Nuggets54c203.7$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.75754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Thunder46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9217148%82 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Thunder40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Thunder44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Nuggets54c181.04$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4216139.8%64 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked Nuggets53c178$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6627059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe350…61f0backed Nuggets52c159$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.324650%23 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…e4bebacked Thunder46c131.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.475738.6%22 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Thunder48c121.66$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.420154.2%109 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Nuggets55c116.45$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.476552.9%405 W · 360 L-2.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Thunder46c108.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5064944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a8…d0e7backed Thunder47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010955%60 W · 49 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed Thunder48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025753.7%138 W · 119 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nuggets59c103.17$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.33,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder40c100.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.323,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Thunder46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9572…ea8ebacked Nuggets53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Nuggets53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4725559.2%151 W · 104 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1adb…f12abacked Thunder48c99.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.945345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Thunder39c97.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.052,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed Nuggets65c96.7$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.267536%27 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Thunder37c96.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.361,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed Thunder41c83.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.814938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nuggets52c75.16$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.082,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a13…271dbacked Thunder40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304450%22 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3868…74f9backed Nuggets55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.731338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Nuggets52c69.23$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.232,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Thunder46c67.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.031,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Thunder47c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5528058.2%163 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Nuggets62c60.53$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1730151.8%156 W · 145 L-1.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Thunder47c53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9153839.4%212 W · 326 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Nuggets53c52.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.531,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Thunder47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.820144.8%90 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Nuggets62c38.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.525655.5%142 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Thunder41c37.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.561,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Thunder43c37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9146447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72e3…a8cabacked Thunder47c36.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x387e…ca5dbacked Nuggets68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.765362.3%33 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Thunder47c30.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0964844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Thunder42c28.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237845%170 W · 208 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Thunder47c24.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5150948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Thunder45c24.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Nuggets58c21.1$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8945452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Nuggets53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.415054%81 W · 69 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.