TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Nuggets, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,079 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc0b8…87c1backed Nuggets72c1,062$769 inLost-$768.76650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Thunder66c799.98$528 inWon+$271.994367.4%29 W · 14 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+25.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Thunder38c682.08$260 inWon+$421.6626353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Nuggets34c667.63$227 inLost-$226.9925452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2cc…021dbacked Nuggets52c276.92$144 inLost-$144540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder31c251.54$79 inWon+$172.355,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Thunder36c183.33$66 inWon+$117.3312543.2%54 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c57…bf46backed Thunder29c117.24$34 inWon+$83.243740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nuggets46c102.5$47 inLost-$47.441,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Thunder56c80.28$45 inWon+$35.3213754%74 W · 63 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dd…d3dfbacked Nuggets53c74.81$40 inLost-$401136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Nuggets34c73.53$25 inLost-$2537848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x648b…b4e9backed Nuggets47c71.6$34 inLost-$33.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39d…2c58backed Thunder35c68.77$24 inWon+$44.73935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f2…3ca1backed Nuggets72c67.5$49 inLost-$48.63852.6%20 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Thunder45c59.05$27 inWon+$32.4488057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Nuggets52c58.41$30 inLost-$30.375558.2%32 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Nuggets34c44.12$15 inLost-$1533730.3%102 W · 235 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Nuggets37c29.99$11 inLost-$11.116139.8%64 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…fb0bbacked Thunder52c25.71$13 inWon+$12.412458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed Thunder66c22.73$15 inWon+$7.735345.3%24 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Thunder65c19.27$13 inWon+$6.7443958.8%258 W · 181 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.