NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce3ab9e464eeca67da34dd2c82f5e698a9102de8f2f903611954fde1ee30454d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,532 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 21,022$11,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,679.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Under | 44c | 13,143$5,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,731 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 51c | 8,600$4,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,385.98 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 3,096$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.79 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 43c | 1,642$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.3 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 1,407$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 39c | 1,300$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.09 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 891.94$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.6 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 880.4$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.71 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 695.62$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.15 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 42c | 530.61$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.49 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 468.7$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.47 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…231cbacked Over | 50c | 441.69$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 57c | 414.92$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.42 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Over | 49c | 325.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.04 | 179 | 60.9%109 W · 70 L | +17.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 54c | 310.36$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.83 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 41c | 151.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 51c | 106.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…94b9backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 42c | 96.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cf…6639backed Over | 50c | 81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Under | 49c | 71.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 39c | 70.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 58c | 64.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…0730backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 49c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 49c | 55.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 44c | 53.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…b6b2backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…cf66backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 45c | 39.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 373 | 44.2%165 W · 208 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…f1dcbacked Over | 57c | 36.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…de37backed Under | 42c | 28.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 49cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…3749backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jaylin Williams: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 231.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 241.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 242.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 243.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 244.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 246.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 247.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 248.5Over won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-1.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.