TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,650 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Over54c2,000$1,080 inWon+$92044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under46c1,599$735 inLost-$734.999,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c7…3e1dbacked Under15c709.66$105 inLost-$1052944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Under47c425.53$200 inLost-$20048957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over75c387.94$290 inWon+$97.453,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under40c234.62$94 inLost-$93.9953149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Over75c226.88$171 inWon+$56.3431345%141 W · 172 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over60c175.84$106 inWon+$69.723,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under45c166.7$75 inLost-$75.0252552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…0426backed Under31c106.45$33 inLost-$333839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86c4…fe40backed Under16c100$16 inLost-$16911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick44cpaid-84.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x16f8…31e9backed Over55c54.91$30 inWon+$24.797647.4%36 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.