NBA · resolved market
Spread: 76ers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc65f8e070047d150082aaf46b354337bb0ac0eb68ee353be276af37596bd6817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof 76ers, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Heat | 56c | 31,279$17,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,516.39 | 431 | 48.7%210 W · 221 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed 76ers | 44c | 13,149$5,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,363.32 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked 76ers | 44c | 8,899$3,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,983.4 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed 76ers | 48c | 7,514$3,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,912.02 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked 76ers | 44c | 6,300$2,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,528 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Heat | 54c | 3,857$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.52 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Heat | 50c | 2,241$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.72 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed 76ers | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 50c | 1,013$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…e904backed 76ers | 45c | 883.07$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.07 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 55c | 839.85$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed 76ers | 44c | 679.99$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.79 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 54c | 259.43$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696d…f89dbacked 76ers | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Heat | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed 76ers | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked 76ers | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed 76ers | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 309 | 45.3%140 W · 169 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Heat | 53c | 130.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 50c | 113.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7bfabacked 76ers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Heat | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 224 | 47.8%107 W · 117 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Heat | 42c | 71.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b8…8712backed Heat | 56c | 70.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked 76ers | 45c | 61.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed Heat | 54c | 60.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 76ers | 33c | 59.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…741dbacked Heat | 50c | 59.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed 76ers | 45c | 58.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed 76ers | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Heat | 48c | 46.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 76ers | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Heat | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers | 43c | 39.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…132abacked Heat | 54c | 38.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Heat | 51c | 38.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…6b01backed Heat | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 52%77 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed 76ers | 54c | 26.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…6c2fbacked Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed 76ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 76ers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-0.5)76ers won
- 1H Spread: 76ers (-1.5)76ers won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Heat vs. 76ers76ers won
- Heat vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- Heat vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Joel Embiid: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Spread: 76ers (-1.5)76ers won
- Spread: 76ers (-2.5)76ers won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.