TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$270,986
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,986 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6139…6b7abacked No23c32,513$7,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,432.0621531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb620…dd7abacked No3c26,055$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.521241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85ed…3d0fbacked No10c15,709$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.5350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No11c15,500$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.991741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No13c11,563$1,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.971643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed No8c11,555$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.31650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4825…007dbacked No0c10,158$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d4…e4a8backed No2c8,133$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6560%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes76c8,014$6,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.216743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes75c5,552$4,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.482050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed No1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed No0c4,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes75c3,687$2,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.22326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes78c2,996$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.112138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes78c2,750$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6045743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49ce…b599backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104418.2%8 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes60c2,322$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.275158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed No2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c1,745$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.977636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf596…8c31backed Yes79c1,520$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.29580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+213.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes68c1,460$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.092133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked No25c1,448$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.51947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3474…3a2dbacked No5c1,370$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No28c1,134$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…83efbacked Yes75c1,112$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.555422.2%12 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db0…4cb0backed No37c1,002$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2503743.2%16 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6726…eabdbacked No4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No3c999.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdf…8cb7backed No23c953.32$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ebc…78b7backed No9c846.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x167f…1f51backed No3c812.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1459…ab65backed No3c806.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.591070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes80c791.35$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.552755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed No25c709.52$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.383540%14 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed No4c696.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-53.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16a3…26e7backed No4c654.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No23c605$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No43c600$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2576726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252d…9483backed Yes75c600$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.161060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No23c572.44$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.558220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed No5c531.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.643850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No20c500.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2516231.5%51 W · 111 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c4…106dbacked Yes57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2152100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed No25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-50.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed No27c499.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510639.6%42 W · 64 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1f…9cdebacked No44c468.8$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2780%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No14c457.08$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes76c450$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.51747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No25c400$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1244922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes74c379.03$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.448137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8178…32d8backed Yes75c375.2$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.44050%20 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No22c348.43$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.642454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505d…f8c4backed Yes58c344.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.72540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f8…0d34backed Yes77c320.6$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.741020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No22c310.86$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3828427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed No4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked No9c296.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.696637.9%25 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea03…0aa1backed No31c295.25$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes71c264.15$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6426423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No15c261.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.136540%26 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.259234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ed…ce35backed No5c241.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.05520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd6…4ec1backed No23c240.4$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.891127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid+22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed No12c240$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeeb7…f16dbacked No20c229.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+59.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No29c216$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb5…610bbacked No24c208$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+83.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No30c203.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604926.5%13 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-35.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x312b…6099backed No22c202.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa2…0204backed Yes71c200$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+87.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568844.3%39 W · 49 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf37b…da7abacked Yes79c189.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.873751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde02…02a1backed No27c178$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No41c166.65$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8614352.4%75 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes77c160$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.62576%19 W · 6 L+6.1wins+0.24per pick52cpaid+54%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x608b…43fcbacked Yes73c149.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick25cpaid+118.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ee2…93fdbacked No9c140$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e97…9ddebacked Yes78c128.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.971030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes75c120$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7613033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b56…b317backed No45c112.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75bc…acd1backed No45c103.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1230%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a85…37c8backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2600…2829backed No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232825%7 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…ad7dbacked No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247230.6%22 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d78…2404backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c2c…e459backed No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3397…fe08backed No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+37.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf079…2ba6backed No23c99.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e46…eb35backed Yes73c95.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd773…c20abacked No28c91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Yes76c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes56c89.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.235121.6%11 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd170…939bbacked No24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…2b37backed No27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3049…7825backed No25c69.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.