TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Trail Blazers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Jazz, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,107,640
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,225,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,107,640 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 553 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Jazz33c150,000$49,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,499.8848343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7737…e2eebacked Jazz0c106,332$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x060e…2384backed Trail Blazers67c90,000$60,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,7008037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Jazz34c76,242$25,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,630.277941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Jazz1c45,756$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.0138239.5%151 W · 231 L+35.9wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+15.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers66c40,831$27,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,799.379,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Trail Blazers67c39,200$26,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,084.3359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Trail Blazers67c37,205$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,204.534946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Trail Blazers67c23,440$15,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,818.94,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Jazz0c23,296$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.758820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…3ef9backed Jazz0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Jazz34c20,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,80051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Jazz24c19,764$4,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,681.1544337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Trail Blazers74c18,816$13,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,881.925,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers66c17,144$11,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,828.942,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Jazz33c15,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9501,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Jazz33c15,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.9737539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Jazz18c14,000$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,482.921,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab0c…3026backed Jazz34c11,600$3,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,907.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Trail Blazers67c11,180$7,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,689.372450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Trail Blazers66c10,576$6,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,595.788961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Jazz21c10,316$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,174.021,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Trail Blazers74c10,303$7,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,693.627865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Jazz2c10,117$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25165218.4%120 W · 532 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f14…892abacked Jazz0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Trail Blazers66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,40066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz17c9,752$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.944,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Jazz7c9,111$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61550838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Trail Blazers69c7,971$5,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.453,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Jazz34c7,746$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,632.1439349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Trail Blazers71c7,232$5,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.3416657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz9c7,136$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.053,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers67c6,084$4,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.726,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Trail Blazers68c5,491$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.772,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Trail Blazers70c5,304$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.9521143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jazz2c5,245$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.491,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7c7…0e9fbacked Jazz3c5,046$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.45425.9%14 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Jazz0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Trail Blazers66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7003759.5%22 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Jazz33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.9946145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Jazz32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.998827.3%24 W · 64 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c42…da3cbacked Trail Blazers67c4,800$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,58414055.7%78 W · 62 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Trail Blazers67c4,620$3,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.689050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers77c4,589$3,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.778,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Jazz34c4,500$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53019747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Jazz2c4,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808320.5%17 W · 66 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers67c4,374$2,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.452,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Jazz32c4,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Jazz34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36021450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Trail Blazers67c4,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32010035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Trail Blazers67c4,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32017861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x686b…7d1cbacked Jazz6c4,000$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.522520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Jazz0c4,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Trail Blazers66c4,000$2,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,354.9623348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19be…2541backed Jazz32c3,989$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.49758.8%57 W · 40 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Trail Blazers68c3,863$2,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.012,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaced…e23abacked Jazz5c3,795$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.94535.6%16 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77a3…95c3backed Jazz1c3,625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020146.3%93 W · 108 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Jazz32c3,500$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12031538.1%120 W · 195 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Trail Blazers66c3,177$2,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.7830947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Jazz33c3,158$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.5221538.1%82 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz34c3,050$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0371,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Jazz7c3,024$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027443.1%118 W · 156 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e16…9719backed Trail Blazers68c3,015$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.712268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Jazz3c3,007$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.211,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Jazz34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00022035.5%78 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Trail Blazers66c2,873$1,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.6930845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Trail Blazers67c2,804$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.211,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Trail Blazers66c2,671$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.071,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…7708backed Jazz8c2,600$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2136238.7%24 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7200…a0b3backed Jazz34c2,587$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.71425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Jazz33c2,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Jazz11c2,500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27537930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Trail Blazers67c2,264$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.2134654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc462…8f5abacked Jazz1c2,252$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0513…0fdebacked Jazz21c2,187$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.92650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Jazz1c2,170$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1964517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Trail Blazers66c2,146$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.5934524.3%84 W · 261 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Trail Blazers68c2,109$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.9514254.9%78 W · 64 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f491backed Trail Blazers66c2,100$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7141136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Trail Blazers67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Trail Blazers66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68027051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Jazz33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e05…f435backed Jazz33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6601435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda03…bdc7backed Trail Blazers67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz15c2,000$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.661,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f90…941ebacked Jazz32c2,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.991250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Trail Blazers66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.9875347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Trail Blazers66c2,000$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.9332051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x438b…fb23backed Jazz3c1,982$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4410426%27 W · 77 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Jazz14c1,960$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.481529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Trail Blazers67c1,875$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.6314663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Trail Blazers67c1,861$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.9938148.6%185 W · 196 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Jazz34c1,765$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1c4…48d7backed Trail Blazers67c1,700$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5614165.9%27 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca8…c951backed Jazz34c1,700$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5783026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Trail Blazers67c1,577$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.412,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Trail Blazers66c1,573$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.942,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Jazz34c1,526$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.942241%173 W · 249 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13f9…611abacked Jazz34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.