Mercer Bears vs. VMI Keydets

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc8b18008448bf45f4fa2e037a1c75b301719e1bcb1c00400332b5fe814b24e7

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Mercer Bearsof Mercer Bears, VMI Keydets
Resolved: Jan 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $54,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $64,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,002 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc2eb…e530backed VMI Keydets	19c	2,590$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Mercer Bears	71c	2,556$1,827 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$729	1,074	43.3%465 W · 609 L	+20.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked VMI Keydets	10c	2,155$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.49	4,382	40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L	+23.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked VMI Keydets	20c	1,578$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.92	1,436	47.5%682 W · 754 L	-18.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed VMI Keydets	10c	1,500$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	230	28.3%65 W · 165 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked VMI Keydets	19c	1,500$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	200	26%52 W · 148 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked VMI Keydets	21c	1,431$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.02	1,983	26.4%523 W · 1,460 L	-55.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed VMI Keydets	22c	1,385$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	101	26.7%27 W · 74 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Mercer Bears	70c	1,238$862 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.51	1,540	41.3%636 W · 904 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Mercer Bears	80c	1,046$837 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.26	397	44.8%178 W · 219 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed VMI Keydets	18c	863.39$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.41	137	35%48 W · 89 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed VMI Keydets	50c	850.88$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.44	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	+15.7wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Mercer Bears	72c	830.76$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.24	2,124	50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L	+40.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2f…3531backed Mercer Bears	67c	828.65$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.45	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed VMI Keydets	23c	815.38$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.39	1,493	48.7%727 W · 766 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed VMI Keydets	47c	737.43$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Mercer Bears	67c	700$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231	154	53.9%83 W · 71 L	+16.8wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Mercer Bears	77c	649.02$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.02	274	50%137 W · 137 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc48…2427backed VMI Keydets	11c	576.11$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.43	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mercer Bears	75c	524.91$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.47	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked VMI Keydets	46c	473.31$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.79	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed VMI Keydets	25c	427$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.55	497	47.5%236 W · 261 L	-4.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed VMI Keydets	7c	410.23$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.87	2,254	42.2%951 W · 1,303 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed VMI Keydets	18c	396.99$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.37	3,380	49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L	+30.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked VMI Keydets	18c	391.75$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.52	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Mercer Bears	65c	383.67$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.67	453	51.4%233 W · 220 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df3…112bbacked VMI Keydets	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed VMI Keydets	29c	260.19$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.23	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed VMI Keydets	19c	202.84$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.54	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked VMI Keydets	14c	195.18$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.32	1,951	45.1%880 W · 1,071 L	-19.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked VMI Keydets	17c	181.68$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.69	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcd2…85b5backed Mercer Bears	66c	165.64$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.06	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked VMI Keydets	18c	147.14$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.95	1,887	45.2%853 W · 1,034 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked VMI Keydets	13c	144$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.01	399	3.3%13 W · 386 L	-21.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-89.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b4f…6678backed Mercer Bears	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	70cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed VMI Keydets	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	254	36.6%93 W · 161 L	-13.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb917…7ab1backed Mercer Bears	57c	104.4$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.4	15	60%9 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed VMI Keydets	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-4.6wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed VMI Keydets	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	643	22.9%147 W · 496 L	-17.1wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8046…a845backed VMI Keydets	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	100	47%47 W · 53 L	+8.7wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+24%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed VMI Keydets	29c	96$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f02…12f5backed VMI Keydets	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked VMI Keydets	12c	91.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	235	44.7%105 W · 130 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4116…555abacked VMI Keydets	23c	76.09$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2749backed VMI Keydets	20c	74.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed VMI Keydets	31c	66.97$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.54	536	35.6%191 W · 345 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…afb3backed Mercer Bears	56c	64.22$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.08	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+77.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x970e…6b60backed Mercer Bears	79c	63.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.29	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85f7…fb66backed VMI Keydets	18c	62.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x212e…e44abacked Mercer Bears	56c	62.3$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.41	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca0c…9c40backed VMI Keydets	22c	60.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b1c…dc02backed VMI Keydets	19c	57.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f36…1a69backed VMI Keydets	36c	55.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+36%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23d4…5607backed VMI Keydets	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	87	37.9%33 W · 54 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6170…da27backed VMI Keydets	36c	46.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xece6…e768backed Mercer Bears	62c	41.47$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.86	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1d…58fcbacked Mercer Bears	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c34…c8b8backed VMI Keydets	26c	38.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	143	39.9%57 W · 86 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2001…29b8backed Mercer Bears	51c	35.16$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.23	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Mercer Bears	77c	34.27$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.88	735	49.1%361 W · 374 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Mercer Bears	73c	34.13$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.07	1,003	55.3%555 W · 448 L	+46.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea3c…44aebacked VMI Keydets	41c	32.31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.34per pick	59cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Mercer Bears	78c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	459	53.8%247 W · 212 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce0a…2d88backed Mercer Bears	58c	29.31$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.31	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fa…07f3backed VMI Keydets	42c	29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde5…4d9dbacked Mercer Bears	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Mercer Bears	80c	23.3$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.66	202	54.5%110 W · 92 L	+9.7wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Mercer Bears	58c	23.21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	2,003	53.7%1,076 W · 927 L	+101.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Mercer Bears	58c	23$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	434	50%217 W · 217 L	+13.8wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb99f…f99fbacked Mercer Bears	56c	21.43$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.43	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52f6…4313backed VMI Keydets	50c	21.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd1…0b70backed Mercer Bears	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	47	70.2%33 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	70cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe10d…3590backed Mercer Bears	80c	16.25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.25	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+42%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf6…2f81backed Mercer Bears	75c	16.03$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.94	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…9e2fbacked Mercer Bears	80c	15.94$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	79cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a82…d2edbacked Mercer Bears	80c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	71cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0db…9f6bbacked Mercer Bears	80c	13.9$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.78	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+56.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd921…737bbacked Mercer Bears	79c	13.14$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.76	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…5f07backed Mercer Bears	80c	12.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.53	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.44per pick	77cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mercer Bears vs. VMI Keydetsthis page
Mercer Bears vs. VMI Keydets: O/U 154.5Under won
Mercer Bears vs. VMI Keydets: O/U 157.5Under won
Spread: Mercer Bears (-10.5)VMI Keydets won
Spread: Mercer Bears (-9.5)Mercer Bears won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mercer Bears vs. VMI Keydets

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event