NFL · resolved market
Eagles vs. Giants: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce1fec3f9fbbf63191449f2bde2c004236ae5b4e6a2ef938d7ff476d74d087eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Over | 51c | 87,591$44,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,995.47 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 49c | 42,222$20,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,688.77 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,600 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Over | 52c | 40,000$20,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,200 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Under | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,699.99 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Under | 48c | 25,194$12,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,096.78 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 48c | 11,950$5,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,750.62 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 9,152$4,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,394.43 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 8,837$4,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,258.72 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 50c | 3,633$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.5 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 55c | 2,357$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.79 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5248…aabbbacked Over | 51c | 2,332$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.68 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 50c | 1,610$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.93 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 51c | 1,366$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.64 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 970.99$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.24 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 831.99$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.4 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Over | 50c | 666$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 609.34$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.76 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Over | 52c | 406.67$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 51c | 372.24$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 50c | 366.55$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.05 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 47c | 353.57$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.39 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 52c | 307.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.69 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 50c | 298$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.02 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 43c | 237.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 50c | 215.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 51c | 206$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Over | 51c | 186.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc80…e7bebacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Under | 50c | 118$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Over | 77c | 108.61$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 48c | 105.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…2281backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 50c | 93.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…37b3backed Over | 54c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…7be8backed Over | 54c | 79.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…f1b3backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Over | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…4fbcbacked Under | 51c | 44.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…3378backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1b…7162backed Over | 50c | 39.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Over | 53c | 39.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…291bbacked Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 50c | 20.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…610fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c34…ac57backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eagles vs. Giants: O/U 40.5this page
- Eagles vs. GiantsGiants won
- Eagles vs. Giants: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.