TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Team Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,929
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$197,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,929 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Liquid33c30,177$9,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,879.0955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Team Falcons74c27,433$20,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,012.095757.9%33 W · 24 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick72cpaid-22.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons62c11,466$7,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400.8742650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Liquid28c10,773$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.791,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid26c6,703$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.1545139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons61c6,405$3,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,514.1739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Team Liquid17c4,987$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.3610342.7%44 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff4…3609backed Team Liquid45c2,280$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.291526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Team Liquid51c1,970$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Team Falcons64c1,819$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.054768.1%32 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Liquid39c1,775$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.755751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Team Falcons62c1,625$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.0112851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Liquid17c1,460$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6465625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Liquid36c1,146$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.5362650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed Team Falcons47c1,132$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.8917651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x563b…774bbacked Team Falcons55c1,112$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.44060%24 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e0…461fbacked Team Liquid45c1,112$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x026d…47edbacked Team Liquid12c1,100$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-80.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Liquid19c1,022$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9340014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43060349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3bc…2f60backed Team Liquid42c856.52$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.915843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Liquid27c840.34$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.2120949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Team Liquid46c762.45$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.7219943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Falcons75c700$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17518075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4605…5299backed Team Liquid46c650.87$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008833%29 W · 59 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f19…f012backed Team Falcons53c600.93$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.033956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf67…374ebacked Team Liquid19c597.44$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Team Falcons75c590.23$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.561957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Team Falcons58c589.73$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.7328549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Team Liquid38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19051140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Liquid45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22569835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked Team Liquid23c499.64$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.621330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a94…5e99backed Team Liquid44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006159%36 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x899e…0863backed Team Liquid45c442.22$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19926454.5%144 W · 120 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Team Falcons61c395.27$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.9554445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons58c382.09$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4829548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Team Liquid29c324$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9615345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed Team Falcons54c323.4$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.761250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons71c314.62$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9029047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Liquid29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8788166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb67…fd46backed Team Liquid38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1149533.7%32 W · 63 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab3d…9776backed Team Liquid36c299.97$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5d…3367backed Team Liquid37c260.34$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa4…71c5backed Team Falcons54c250$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.156245.2%28 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42c…786bbacked Team Liquid31c235.24$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.14548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f39…28dabacked Team Liquid43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003636.1%13 W · 23 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Team Falcons78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445962.7%37 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Team Liquid29c200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.563032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d7…0c39backed Team Liquid20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020530.7%63 W · 142 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Team Falcons58c199.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3a…df40backed Team Falcons74c190$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+67.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Team Falcons55c172.09$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.446550.8%33 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Team Falcons59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4926957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf938…1249backed Team Falcons80c168.11$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9917360.7%105 W · 68 L-13.6wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Team Falcons60c166.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3939550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6359…e065backed Team Liquid30c162.1$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8a…d30fbacked Team Liquid41c160$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.82564%16 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe89c…0220backed Team Liquid17c145.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.66837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Liquid35c121.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.541,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Falcons54c116.13$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4273554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ccc…6b82backed Team Liquid17c108.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43941%16 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe73f…1989backed Team Liquid19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.43per pick55cpaid-74.8%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5524…2f3cbacked Team Falcons62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386844.1%30 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fc…6033backed Team Falcons66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5383…df65backed Team Falcons75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb64f…dc88backed Team Falcons79c99.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214250%21 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85d…6832backed Team Liquid34c97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2112438.7%48 W · 76 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c49…b222backed Team Liquid21c95.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.062050%10 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Team Falcons62c93.55$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5526958.7%158 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed Team Falcons55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.913743.2%16 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78db…4d37backed Team Falcons53c89.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.296944.9%31 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons62c70.9$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.692,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc173…be7cbacked Team Liquid29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202737%10 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Team Liquid20c64.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.945318.9%10 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f2…6090backed Team Liquid31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936f…7f75backed Team Liquid47c63.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.085350.9%27 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Liquid27c60.05$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.161,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdbc8…d266backed Team Liquid47c59.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.25844.8%26 W · 32 L-7.6wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-22.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Falcons70c59.24$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6491356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x913f…916dbacked Team Liquid27c58.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b31…470bbacked Team Falcons63c56.52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.911668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3873…dec8backed Team Liquid39c55.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7313946%64 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf883…b8b4backed Team Falcons73c55.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9418764.7%121 W · 66 L+17.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+15%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4639…6597backed Team Liquid20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Team Falcons75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.537456.4%211 W · 163 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Team Liquid47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.579343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x76ff…a353backed Team Liquid32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163043.3%13 W · 17 L-6.4wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-33.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0988…f6f9backed Team Liquid44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9f…e02ebacked Team Falcons60c46.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.671154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons62c46.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6145061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde6e…7fa3backed Team Falcons57c43.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.864757.4%27 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed Team Falcons62c43.21$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4255561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Team Liquid26c39.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.433645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c7…24c2backed Team Falcons76c39.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6813061.5%80 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abc…1a6ebacked Team Falcons59c37.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.461764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac49…79c7backed Team Falcons69c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ece…e3c8backed Team Falcons58c32.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.824136.6%15 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdafa…9f46backed Team Falcons72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf3…b401backed Team Falcons71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d0…f39ebacked Team Liquid48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.