TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs LNG Esports (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Invictus Gamingof Invictus Gaming, LNG Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,998
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,998 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x282f…7c4ebacked Invictus Gaming56c9,818$5,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,319.7714342%60 W · 83 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed LNG Esports44c7,000$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.975740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Invictus Gaming58c7,000$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,939.9320748.8%101 W · 106 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked LNG Esports42c4,610$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.5934151.6%176 W · 165 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked LNG Esports44c4,401$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.3448844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Invictus Gaming56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked LNG Esports44c2,504$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,101.7117555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed LNG Esports44c2,021$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.2430843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed LNG Esports46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9205147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Invictus Gaming54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.8526155.9%146 W · 115 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6f…6c5cbacked Invictus Gaming56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7115443.5%67 W · 87 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked LNG Esports45c1,581$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.888950.5%449 W · 440 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5de…cabebacked LNG Esports42c1,189$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5119336.3%70 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked LNG Esports46c1,180$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.8264749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed LNG Esports44c1,145$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.869741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Invictus Gaming57c1,078$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.211,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed LNG Esports45c899.98$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.991,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked LNG Esports44c887.7$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.991,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed LNG Esports41c851.16$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.9823445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5055…b09bbacked Invictus Gaming55c818.18$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.1813735%48 W · 89 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0160…1224backed LNG Esports47c813$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.0223639.8%94 W · 142 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2f…9765backed Invictus Gaming55c797.16$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.724641.3%19 W · 27 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Invictus Gaming56c723.83$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.752,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Invictus Gaming52c604.8$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.4216346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked Invictus Gaming55c599.98$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9919260.9%117 W · 75 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed LNG Esports45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22526729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed LNG Esports42c499.08$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.623860.5%23 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Invictus Gaming55c494.55$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.559344.1%41 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed LNG Esports45c492.35$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.3124648.4%119 W · 127 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed LNG Esports45c450$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.522746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Invictus Gaming55c449.2$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1450956.2%286 W · 223 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Invictus Gaming57c434.7$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.674055%22 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked Invictus Gaming56c375.88$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.3914748.3%71 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked Invictus Gaming54c358.13$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.326352.4%33 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb22f…8339backed Invictus Gaming56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1410341.7%43 W · 60 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3b…9035backed LNG Esports42c357.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+27.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Invictus Gaming56c357$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1446050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked LNG Esports47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15036246.4%168 W · 194 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x797c…2038backed Invictus Gaming54c314.81$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.819446.8%44 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a76…29dcbacked Invictus Gaming54c313.41$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1713764.2%88 W · 49 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Invictus Gaming56c311.09$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.172,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Invictus Gaming54c279.99$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.835045.1%158 W · 192 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882f…50b8backed Invictus Gaming56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8652646.2%243 W · 283 L-0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d28…0d64backed Invictus Gaming57c267.06$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1815143.7%66 W · 85 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x13ba…53e4backed Invictus Gaming59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2411943.7%52 W · 67 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed LNG Esports49c236.92$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7297254.3%528 W · 444 L+46.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8247…1a4fbacked Invictus Gaming56c236.57$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.091457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d3…42e4backed Invictus Gaming56c196.43$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4326440.9%108 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Invictus Gaming55c181$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.4515861.4%97 W · 61 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xee0e…38bbbacked Invictus Gaming55c179.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.176047%357 W · 403 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed LNG Esports46c152.52$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7052441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked LNG Esports45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.51,44413.2%191 W · 1,253 L-110.0wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd207…c366backed LNG Esports44c136.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1310847.2%51 W · 57 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed LNG Esports47c131.53$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4439652%206 W · 190 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Invictus Gaming54c130$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.853829.4%158 W · 380 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6202…c297backed Invictus Gaming56c118.27$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.046253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed LNG Esports45c117.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8817943.6%78 W · 101 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed LNG Esports43c114.65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.325441.7%106 W · 148 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2458…bd24backed Invictus Gaming54c111.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.119341.9%39 W · 54 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Invictus Gaming55c109.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0992342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f0…ff70backed LNG Esports45c107.64$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.444553.3%24 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Invictus Gaming56c101.79$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7992354.3%501 W · 422 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked LNG Esports22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.251,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50b8…0469backed Invictus Gaming54c95.13$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.761618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Invictus Gaming54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5940645.6%185 W · 221 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Invictus Gaming55c91.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.312152.1%63 W · 58 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x834f…f38ebacked Invictus Gaming55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed LNG Esports46c90.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.851,30049.2%639 W · 661 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d5…bc0cbacked Invictus Gaming56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2921457%122 W · 92 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Invictus Gaming53c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.612539.2%49 W · 76 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f7…f9e4backed LNG Esports45c80$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367554.7%41 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91dc…ca3abacked LNG Esports46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.86446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Invictus Gaming56c79.41$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9416547.3%78 W · 87 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed LNG Esports46c65.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309635.4%34 W · 62 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Invictus Gaming56c61.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.991,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked LNG Esports46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61,02345.1%461 W · 562 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a7e…e0b3backed Invictus Gaming53c59.43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9315450.6%78 W · 76 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked Invictus Gaming54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5613964%89 W · 50 L+12.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfd1…cd25backed Invictus Gaming56c53.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.874557.8%26 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x237f…362ebacked LNG Esports47c52.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6611851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Invictus Gaming53c52.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.722748%109 W · 118 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8934…afb3backed Invictus Gaming58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.726650%33 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Invictus Gaming59c51.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.932231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Invictus Gaming53c49.17$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.332,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Invictus Gaming54c44.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4746148.8%225 W · 236 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x051a…54c6backed LNG Esports46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked LNG Esports47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2049346.5%229 W · 264 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x573d…48f3backed Invictus Gaming56c38.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.915834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee16…16a2backed Invictus Gaming54c37.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0321054.8%115 W · 95 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25a4…69f6backed Invictus Gaming56c37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.288659.3%51 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344c…b454backed Invictus Gaming55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked LNG Esports42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513951.8%72 W · 67 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Invictus Gaming56c35.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4982161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ba…e2b1backed Invictus Gaming55c34.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.472236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb83e…755ebacked Invictus Gaming58c32.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.766354%34 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f3…f487backed Invictus Gaming62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2612157.9%70 W · 51 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+23.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed LNG Esports46c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3445044.7%201 W · 249 L-29.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb797…1cf3backed Invictus Gaming56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7911850.8%60 W · 58 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20aa…b3dcbacked Invictus Gaming56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.797250%36 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd533…d6a1backed Invictus Gaming55c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4545841.5%190 W · 268 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.