Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd18e64334f1283a2b9d51d06be4faf1e920206a88dcf4fbb797044133b81a080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x912a…2e6abacked Under | 60c | 21,947$13,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,793.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over | 40c | 12,720$5,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,088 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 39c | 10,840$4,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,277.72 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 41c | 4,370$1,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.77 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 2,008$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.34 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 42c | 1,197$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 8c | 1,156$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Over | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 77c | 683.43$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.81 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 40c | 667.74$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.31 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 36c | 462$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 390.52$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.55 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 54c | 384.52$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 33c | 381.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.66 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 76c | 377.64$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 38c | 350$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Under | 76c | 290$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 287$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 38c | 260$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 40c | 219$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 18c | 215.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 17c | 171$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 132$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 39c | 120.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Over | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 118.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 39c | 117.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 40c | 102$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 61c | 101.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 99.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 40c | 98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 17c | 92.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 61c | 81.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 40c | 60.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 42c | 44.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 41c | 41.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240c…4c62backed Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 29c | 39.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Over | 43c | 39.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 61c | 29.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 40c | 28.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 39c | 26.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 77c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.