Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6bae1a629b583cca09acae2f6c4afa9516907f0430fc7f654066dec326def73

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,555

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,328 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1b4d…e246backed Yes	28c	19,818$5,549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,269.29	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No	73c	15,000$10,903 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,902.8	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked No	72c	13,446$9,681 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,681.36	145	53.8%78 W · 67 L	+9.1wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked No	72c	4,100$2,952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,952	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Yes	27c	3,704$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,703.92	144	45.8%66 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	72c	2,500$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,799.99	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes	28c	2,000$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,439.99	304	31.3%95 W · 209 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Yes	27c	1,500$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,095	100	26%26 W · 74 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc632…6871backed Yes	28c	892.86$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$642.86	102	40.2%41 W · 61 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	4c	722.88$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.92	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd73…4da1backed Yes	28c	720$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.4	197	13.7%27 W · 170 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37b…3802backed Yes	28c	480.93$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348.53	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb225…3d54backed Yes	27c	429.55$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.57	95	25.3%24 W · 71 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a2…6883backed Yes	28c	417.86$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.86	54	29.6%16 W · 38 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes	27c	405$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.33	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5d3…6b98backed No	72c	399.95$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.96	65	70.8%46 W · 19 L	+6.5wins	+0.10per pick	61cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa7f1…b052backed Yes	28c	357.14$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.14	159	30.2%48 W · 111 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes	28c	355.5$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.51	414	29%120 W · 294 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes	27c	350$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.5	206	38.8%80 W · 126 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a00…4684backed No	73c	299.99$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	59	62.7%37 W · 22 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	76	32.9%25 W · 51 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15c2…345abacked Yes	25c	200$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked No	75c	200$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	83	63.9%53 W · 30 L	+11.3wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1330…b4b5backed Yes	28c	200$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	129	27.1%35 W · 94 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cd7…7842backed Yes	28c	178.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.57	184	36.4%67 W · 117 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dd…cca5backed Yes	28c	178.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.57	113	23%26 W · 87 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc86b…6e26backed Yes	28c	178.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.57	150	40.7%61 W · 89 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes	32c	165.51$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.48	1,795	44.2%794 W · 1,001 L	-12.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a3e…fde0backed Yes	28c	150$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f9…992abacked Yes	28c	141.32$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.46	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a18…edebbacked Yes	27c	130.09$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.97	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes	28c	124.99$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.99	239	50.2%120 W · 119 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	28c	118.96$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.65	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Yes	28c	107.14$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.14	147	20.4%30 W · 117 L	-8.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-22%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51c7…17e4backed Yes	28c	107.14$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.14	62	27.4%17 W · 45 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+93.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66bb…cd52backed Yes	28c	107.14$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.14	331	23.6%78 W · 253 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	28c	107.14$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.14	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe2c…4da8backed Yes	28c	107.14$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.14	89	33.7%30 W · 59 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Yes	28c	104.07$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.93	667	45%300 W · 367 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Yes	28c	100$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	272	42.3%115 W · 157 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed No	72c	99.99$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	147	63.9%94 W · 53 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4b…541bbacked No	71c	96.71$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.66	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…08b7backed Yes	28c	89.29$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.29	99	34.3%34 W · 65 L	-8.2wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x60e0…33fabacked Yes	28c	89.29$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.29	375	26.1%98 W · 277 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…5cb6backed Yes	28c	85.36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.46	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+3.8wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…2858backed Yes	28c	75$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	154	49.4%76 W · 78 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4738…9cfbbacked Yes	28c	72$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.84	81	42%34 W · 47 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1f…3fd0backed Yes	28c	71.43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.43	158	37.3%59 W · 99 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3052…c80bbacked Yes	28c	70.81$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.81	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yes	50c	70.2$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.86	1,141	46.2%527 W · 614 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd520…0c5fbacked Yes	29c	68.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.97	116	40.5%47 W · 69 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	72c	67.85$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.85	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cee…5a38backed Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.52	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	69c	64.52$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.52	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Yes	55c	63.64$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.64	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0121…f722backed No	72c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	236	44.9%106 W · 130 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abc…98f6backed Yes	28c	55.68$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.09	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdd…bd60backed No	73c	54.79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	+5.4wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.57	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.57	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2809…0b89backed Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.57	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+6.9wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+22%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80ea…b33cbacked Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.57	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…1888backed Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.57	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	58c	50$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98e1…5516backed Yes	28c	46.43$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.43	55	23.6%13 W · 42 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67f6…1651backed No	44c	45.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	253	28.1%71 W · 182 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf20…1881backed No	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	113	29.2%33 W · 80 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0bd…28aabacked No	73c	38.36$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	71cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked No	45c	38.2$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	669	32.1%215 W · 454 L	+16.8wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No	72c	35.94$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.87	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Yes	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	333	45.3%151 W · 182 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked No	70c	35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f55…92c3backed No	73c	27.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa566…72debacked Yes	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	70	40%28 W · 42 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked No	60c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	152	52.6%80 W · 72 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	60c	24.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.59	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d0…292dbacked No	72c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 99. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goalsthis page
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assistsNo won
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goalsNo won
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shotsYes won
Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shotsNo won
Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Alex Baena: 1+ assistsNo won
Alex Baena: 1+ goalsNo won
Alex Baena: 1+ shotsYes won
Alex Baena: 2+ shotsYes won
Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assistsNo won
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assistsNo won
Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shotsNo won
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assistsNo won
Bradley Barcola: 1+ goalsNo won
Brice Samba: 3+ savesNo won
Brice Samba: 4+ savesNo won
Cucurella: 1+ shotsNo won
Dani Olmo: 1+ assistsYes won
Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
Dani Olmo: 1+ shotsYes won
Dani Olmo: 2+ assistsNo won
Dani Olmo: 2+ shotsNo won
Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
David Raya: 3+ savesNo won
David Raya: 4+ savesNo won
David Raya: 5+ savesNo won
Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shotsNo won
Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
Désiré Doué: 1+ shotsYes won
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on targetYes won
Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
Désiré Doué: 2+ shotsYes won
Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assistsNo won
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assistsNo won
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goalsNo won
Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goalsNo won
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goalsNo won
Jules Koundé: 1+ shotsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shotsYes won
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shotsYes won
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shotsYes won
Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shotsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shotsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ shotsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 3+ shotsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event