TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,599

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,951 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed No64c1,767$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.328324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes36c705.82$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.298,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c563.21$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.1110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c562.42$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.522,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3c…ca16backed No8c424.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.514934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes47c362$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.795,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No14c356.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.046,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed Yes36c300.75$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.2931454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c298.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes37c263$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.691,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No30c257.94$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c243.6$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.495,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No58c214.57$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.282,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes39c205$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2525947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c202.73$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12817324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes37c188.35$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.375,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No42c181$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.654,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes42c180.86$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.071,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No52c165$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.253,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes59c164.82$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.712365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No59c160.85$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.794,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes79c156.45$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.076955.1%38 W · 31 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Yes42c155.96$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.463562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes74c144.94$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.369545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No19c141.81$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No31c130.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7941760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes41c121.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.551,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No57c119.86$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.221,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes36c116.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.42,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e22…67b6backed Yes43c114.65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.35683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes73c111.45$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7122645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes41c109.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9397152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes41c108.38$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.821,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No47c105.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes67c105$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes41c102.44$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.441,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c102.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.261,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No37c100.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.967,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6072837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.085,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes68c98.5$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.691,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No57c97.36$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.42,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ab…cbc4backed No56c94.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.12955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No52c91.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.851,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No57c89.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9946743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes45c88.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8887629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c88.65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.642,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c85.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.963,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes73c82.37$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3722550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes40c82.2$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3239543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4323…f818backed Yes41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.25313.2%7 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No44c78.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.92,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes43c78.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.571,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No27c74.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x33ec…4526backed No19c73.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes39c66.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5712157%69 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes80c63.84$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7761365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No55c57.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.511,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No56c55.03$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.561,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3515529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3270148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3121339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes42c49.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5315449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.733,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3147…9145backed Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes79c44.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.118476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes75c41.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4125549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes45c37.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes45c37.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.933,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes43c37.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4133746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No43c36.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7453855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b6…6c51backed Yes39c34.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.822661.5%16 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes42c33.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5990555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes60c33.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.177452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No62c31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2299571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No54c30.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.652,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes50c28.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2944536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No40c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No69c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3247569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No54c27.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b09…68babacked Yes44c26.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.072646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed No62c25.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.063161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7689…8317backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad43…1427backed Yes71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.254465.9%29 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No72c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1871464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ac…647bbacked Yes76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.044965.3%32 W · 17 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No54c24.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.342,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes52c24.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.671,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No65c23.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.951,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked No59c22.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136845.6%31 W · 37 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-21.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.012,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.44,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.751,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes68c19.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.321,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No59c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1380957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.