Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc701da5c497c8dbf965890f6a62f178d9f03b7eb7343efbaa21ab8fd921b06d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 49c | 934.46$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.78 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 47c | 592.87$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.71 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 34c | 575$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.38 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 25c | 531.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.92 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 500$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 46c | 469.12$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.68 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 35c | 449.7$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.66 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed No | 53c | 333$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 70c | 251.71$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 224.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 43c | 207.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 37c | 188$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 68c | 138.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 47c | 135$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 23c | 126$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 42c | 122$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 60c | 119.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…42c4backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 46c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 79.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 72c | 79.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…030bbacked Yes | 78c | 73.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 46c | 40.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 70c | 35.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…e162backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…bad1backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 28?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on March 28?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on March 28?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.